Severe Storms

WW 377 SEVERE TSTM KY 061835Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will spread eastward into eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the afternoon, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Jackson KY to 30 miles south southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0376 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0376 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 6 18:01:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more