Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061820Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A semi-organized band of storms with some wind damage potential will spread eastward across eastern Kentucky through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Earlier multicell storm clusters have grown into a somewhat organized band of storms across central KY, aided by 30 kt midlevel flow sampled by the LMK VWP. Given the downstream environment with moderately large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and just enough westerly shear in the lowest 3-5 km AGL layer to help maintain updrafts on the leading edge of the developing cold pool, there is potential for some wind-damage threat to persist through the afternoon into eastern KY. For these reasons, a severe thunderstorm watch is being considered within the next 30 minutes or so. ..Thompson.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37198268 36868337 36728402 36708459 36728511 36848530 37158515 37508495 38088482 38318465 38478423 38428362 38128313 37838268 37198268 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...far southern Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061649Z - 061845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes is expected through mid afternoon. A watch may become necessary. DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCV from morning convection is moving generally eastward over southeast MO. New convection has been slowly consolidating in advance of the MCV, and additional storm development is likely into the strongly unstable warm sector across western KY/northwestern TN. On the mesoscale, there will be an increase in low-midlevel vertical shear and related hodograph size/curvature as enhanced flow with the MCV encounters the larger buoyancy to its east through the afternoon. Storm clusters with embedded supercells will be possible, with an increase in the potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through mid-late afternoon. This area will be monitored closely and a watch could become necessary by early-mid afternoon (near or after 19z/2p CDT). ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37358756 36618732 35738758 35518852 35598911 35748962 36159011 36599032 37199017 37578967 37618893 37538808 37358756 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more