Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

MD 1144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky and far southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061447Z - 061645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few multicell storms with a marginal hail/wind threat will be possible through early afternoon. A watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is spreading eastward across western KY and far southern IN, in association with a diffuse midlevel perturbation moving along and south of a stalled front. Destabilization is ongoing south of the front as temperatures warm into the lower 80s, which will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range over the next few hours. Though there is modest enhancement to flow above 5 km AGL, flow below is relatively weak and storms are expected to remain primarily multicellular. Thermodynamic profiles could support isolated hail near 1 inch diameter and isolated wind damage with downbursts, but the overall severe threat appears too marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch through midday-early afternoon. ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 36748772 37138778 37278765 37688719 38418611 38648548 38498485 38008452 37568456 37088487 36678605 36678739 36748772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 6 14:15:12 UTC 2025.

MD 1143 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma far southern Mississippi...and northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375... Valid 061246Z - 061415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind/tornado threat should persist for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to produce sporadic damaging/severe wind gusts with occasional mesovorticies and line embedded tornadoes. Only around 1000 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE exists ahead of the line now. In addition, a 40 knot low-level jet which helped to maintain the MCS through the overnight period remains across eastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas with a weaker low-level jet across central Arkansas and southern Missouri. Therefore, as storms continue to move east of the stronger low-level jet and the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect this line of storms to weaken within the weak to moderately unstable environment. In the meantime, a 35 knot low-level jet from the KSRX VWP and >200 m2/s2 will continue to support a severe wind/embedded tornado threat in the near term before this weakening becomes more prevalent by mid-morning. ..Bentley.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 36839413 36769281 36509228 35749233 35129276 34589358 34269414 34129478 34509552 34729585 34999597 35349534 35859480 36199452 36839413 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLC TO 20 NW RKR TO 20 NW FSM TO 5 W FYV TO 20 SW UMN TO 20 ENE JLN. ..BENTLEY..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129- 131-141-143-149-061340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL MOC009-153-209-213-061340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY OZARK STONE TANEY OKC061-077-079-121-061340- Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLC TO 20 NW RKR TO 20 NW FSM TO 5 W FYV TO 20 SW UMN TO 20 ENE JLN. ..BENTLEY..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129- 131-141-143-149-061340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL MOC009-153-209-213-061340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY OZARK STONE TANEY OKC061-077-079-121-061340- Read more