Severe Storms

MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 160713Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to move southeast out of eastern Wyoming and into/across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. The threat for hail and gusty winds will continue for another couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to move southeast from eastern Wyoming into and across the Nebraska Panhandle. These thunderstorms are slightly offset to the east-northeast from the best corridor of instability, being supported by warm-air advection originating within the corridor of better moisture and instability. The airmass feeding these thunderstorms has resulted in most-unstable CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 50-60 knots. Given the organized nature of the ongoing thunderstorms, the potential for severe hail and gusty winds will continue for the next few hours before instability diminishes sufficiently -- and inhibition increases sufficiently -- to weaken overall thunderstorm intensity. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... LAT...LON 41390401 42790418 42530176 41160141 41390401 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western New England. ...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region, fueling scattered storms. To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley, supporting bouts of severe storms. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level warm advection out of the southwest. ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater. ...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England... Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may support a brief supercell. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western New England. ...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region, fueling scattered storms. To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley, supporting bouts of severe storms. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level warm advection out of the southwest. ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater. ...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England... Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may support a brief supercell. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western New England. ...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region, fueling scattered storms. To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley, supporting bouts of severe storms. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level warm advection out of the southwest. ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater. ...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England... Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may support a brief supercell. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western New England. ...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region, fueling scattered storms. To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley, supporting bouts of severe storms. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level warm advection out of the southwest. ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater. ...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England... Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may support a brief supercell. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-021-031-037-045-059-061-073-085-087-091-099- 103-107-111-121-133-139-149-161-177-197-205-207-209-160640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-160640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-045-069-123-157-161-165-160640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE DAWES GARDEN MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX WYC009-015-027-031-160640- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more