Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning across parts of the southern Great Plains. Destructive, very large hail and a few significant severe wind gusts will be the main threats. Any tornado risk is expected to be brief. ...Much of western TX into southern OK... Scattered severe storms likely producing large hail have already developed across parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains, with a few cells now moving into southwest OK. A front continues to drift southward across central OK and the TX Panhandle, with pressure falls noted within the surface trough. The greatest potential for particularly damaging hail appears to be located from northwest TX into southern OK through this afternoon and into the evening, as storms ride east/northeast along the boundary. The deepening moist layer, even with weak low-level winds, will provide favorable storm relative inflow for long-lived severe storms given moderate steering currents aloft. This, combined with additionally favorable mid to high level wind shear/elongated hodographs, suggest a storm or two could produce long swaths of significant hail. Additional severe storms producing hail will still be possible north of the boundary, as pockets of heating continue, and the air mass remains sufficiently unstable. The northeasterly boundary-layer winds north of the boundary may yield one or more left-moving cells. Other severe storms producing hail and damaging gusts are likely across much of West and western-North TX where the air mass continues to heat well ahead of the southward-moving front, including the area from Ft. Stockton/Midland northeastward toward Abilene. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Southern Great Plains... Confidence continues to increase with potential for a significant severe weather episode across north/west TX and south OK this afternoon into tonight, yielding expansion of the cat 3 severe risk. The northern extent of a rather rich western Gulf air mass has spread across much of north TX and southwest to east OK, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. Moderate boundary-layer heating coupled with the rich moisture will yield a broad plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Elevated thunderstorms may continue to shift east into northeast OK while renewed development across the TX Panhandle will probably intensify by early afternoon as it transitions to surface-based development along the southward-sagging composite cold front/large-scale outflow. Scattered thunderstorm development is also anticipated southward into the Trans-Pecos as low-level convergence/upslope increases near the dryline. A lack of surface cyclogenesis will result in relatively weak low-level mass response and correspondingly small low-level hodographs this afternoon in the warm sector. However, substantial speed shear above 700 mb will yield relatively straight and highly elongated mid to upper-level hodographs favoring splitting supercells with initial storm development. These initial supercells will be capable of producing very large to giant hail from 2-3.5 inches, mainly across west TX where steeper mid-level lapse rates and discrete supercell mode will persist longer. Farther north and east, consolidating outflow interactions and minimal convective inhibition will likely result in quicker upscale growth into clusters and bowing line segments by late afternoon/early evening as storm coverage becomes widespread. Still, given the favorable hodographs for strong mid-level rotation, longer-track embedded supercells will be possible, especially along the composite front/outflow across south OK initially, and over western north TX later. These may yield destructive wind-driven hail swaths with localized gusts reaching 75-85 mph. A large MCS is anticipated this evening, moving east-southeast over north/northeast TX with a decreasing severe wind risk overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, ridging across the western US is forecast to intensify through the forecast period. To the east, persistent troughing is excepted over the central and eastern US as a second shortwave moves south out of Canada. With high pressure over the West, some offshore flow may linger over parts of southern CA through the day and into the overnight. However, with a cooler air mass and widespread precip over the preceding days, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0699 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 50 WSW HLC TO 30 S MCK TO 10 ENE MCK TO 10 N BBW TO 35 NW BUB. ..LYONS..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-051-063-065-101-135-137-141-147-163-165-171-179-183-195- 203-032340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM LANE NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS RUSH SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WICHITA NEC001-015-019-047-061-065-071-073-077-079-083-089-093-099-137- 145-163-175-181-183-032340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOYD BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS Read more

WW 699 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 031820Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northeast Colorado Northwest to north-central Kansas Southwest to central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop but quickly grow upscale into northeast-moving clusters. Large hail will be the primary initial threat with sporadic severe wind gusts becoming more prominent towards early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southwest of Hill City KS to 15 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 700 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 700 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-043-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-415-431-443-451-461-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCURRY STERLING TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 700 SEVERE TSTM TX 032005Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are likely initially near the Lower Pecos Valley and then developing north across the eastern Permian Basin vicinity. Large hail up to golf ball size will be the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southeast of Fort Stockton TX to 55 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 701 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MN NE SD 032205Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa North Central Kansas Southwest Minnesota Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will spread northeastward across the watch area this evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Brookings SD to 45 miles west southwest of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0702 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 702 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 032230Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly forming over southwest Kansas. These storms will build northeastward through the evening, posing a risk of very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Concordia KS to 35 miles west of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700...WW 701... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 2223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699...701... FOR EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 2223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Areas affected...eastern NE...southeast SD...southwest MN...and far western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...701... Valid 032356Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699, 701 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to grow upscale into a QLCS. The risk for winds and a brief tornado or two will continue. DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar analysis shows much of the storms over NE and SD have grown upscale into a QLCS. Ahead of this line, the environment remains weak to moderately unstable, sufficient for storm maintenance. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will continue to support storm organization within the QLCS. The linear mode will support a risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), especially with any sustained bowing segments or embedded supercells. Low-level shear should also increase into this evening as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern NE and far southeast SD. Area VADs already show initial signs of this with enlarging low-level hodographs below 1 km. While storm mode and boundary-layer RH are not optimal, a tornado or two will remain possible with embedded supercells or QLCS features this evening. Severe trends will be monitored over the next couple of hours for any local extension of WW701 eastward ..Lyons.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID... LAT...LON 42989587 42499582 41779574 41249573 40869581 40549590 40199612 40079651 39889770 39999820 40079840 40299856 40589852 41119833 41359829 42649799 42969783 43279775 43619775 44219778 44529745 44609714 44599647 44289606 43869599 42989587 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A strong upper trough will develop within the Upper Midwest through the remainder of this week before moving into the Northeast and becoming a large upper-level low this weekend. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will develop. Models indicate some potential for a trough to move into the West Coast early next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains and eventually the Gulf/Mid-Atlantic Coasts by the weekend. High pressure will be present in the Great Basin with some modest reinforcement this weekend as a stronger surface high moves south into the Plains. Given the precipitation and cooler temperatures expected with the frontal system in the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, potential for critical fire weather is expected to remain low during the period. Some weak offshore flow is still possible in southern California, which should peak Wednesday morning. Fuel conditions remain rather moist and only locally elevated conditions are anticipated. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening, centered on the central Plains. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to expand probabilities slightly westward across western KS. A moist and unstable airmass is present along and east of a cold front across the central Plains. Scattered severe hail should continue to be the main threat in the short term with multiple supercells that have developed across parts of western KS into southwestern NE. Damaging winds may become an increasing concern later this afternoon and evening as convection should attempt to grow upscale into a small bowing cluster along/near the cold front in NE. The threat for a few tornadoes is less clear, as low-level moisture remains somewhat limited. Still, some chance may exist with any supercell that can remain discrete through the early evening, as low-level shear gradually increases in tandem with a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ..Gleason.. 10/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023/ ...Central Great Plains... Multiple rounds of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, yielding a messy, multifaceted severe weather scenario. Initial ascent along the leading edge of the High Plains buoyancy plume has supported persistent shower and isolated thunderstorms from the eastern OK Panhandle to the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. Most 12Z HREF guidance suggest intensifying thunderstorms will probably evolve in the immediate wake of this activity with the bulk of greater destabilization occurring to its west amid steepening mid-level lapse rates, with decreasing buoyancy ahead of it. Modest mid-level lapse rates and inverted-v low-level thermodynamic profiles downstream should support a threat for mostly isolated severe hail and wind along the leading edge. There will be potential for more intense supercell development along the southwest backside of this initial lobe, around the southwest to south-central KS vicinity, as a plume of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg impinges on this region from the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. This could favor a threat for isolated very large hail up to baseball size during the late afternoon to early evening. The primary lobe of ascent attendant to the shortwave impulse ejecting onto the central High Plains from the Front Range should initiate scattered thunderstorms in a few hours as it impinges on the buoyancy plume. This activity should further intensify along the surface front across far northeast CO and northwest KS into central NE later this afternoon. A plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells conditionally capable of producing significant severe hail. However, consensus of CAM guidance suggests relatively quick upscale growth may occur given the strong forcing for ascent and deep-layer shear vector generally paralleling the surface front. In addition, the gap between these front-aided storms and those within the downstream warm-advection plume should shrink during the evening, further lowering confidence on sustaining discrete supercells. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, with convection weakening to the north and east given the expected sharpness of the instability gradient towards the Mid-MO Valley. ...Southern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most probable along the trailing periphery of the KS convective plume into northwest OK, and separately near the dryline in the Permian Basin vicinity during the late afternoon and farther northeast into northwest TX this evening. Mid-level lapse rates with southern extent will be increasingly modest relative to typical severe weather setups along the dryline, suggesting that hail magnitudes may struggle beyond golf ball size. A more favorable wind profile/lapse rate combination for significant severe hail will exist in the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK vicinity, but storm coverage is more questionable here. Overall, there will be sufficient vertical shear/buoyancy for splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and localized severe wind gusts through late evening. ...South-central ND vicinity... A corridor of weak surface-based buoyancy should develop downstream of a shortwave impulse gradually shifting east from the MT/WY/Dakotas border area. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongation to the hodograph within the upper portion of the buoyancy profile could support a few cells producing marginally severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF TO 55 SSE ALS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212 ..LYONS..10/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-022340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION TXC003-103-109-135-165-243-301-371-389-475-495-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER Read more

WW 696 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin with a primary threat of large hail. A tornado or two is possible, particularly in the east-central to southeast New Mexico portion of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Raton NM to 60 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0697 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Areas affected...portions of the western TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022249Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in eastern NM may pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail into portions of the western TX Panhandle and south Plains this evening. A new watch is possible, but uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, ongoing across parts of far eastern NM. Occasional severe gusts and hail have been occurring with this convection as it slowly tracks east/northeast toward the TX border. Thus far, the strongest vertical shear (observed from area VWPs and SPC SFCOA) has remained on the NM side of the border given the mostly meridional deep-layer flow. However, some of the stronger flow aloft may gradually shift eastward into the far western TX Panhandle and south Plains over the next couple of hours. The environment remains broadly favorable along the NM/TX border for storm organization into supercells with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. However, the severe threat likely decreases rapidly beyond the first row or two of counties in TX, with much weaker vertical shear and buoyancy in place over the central Panhandle. While uncertain, a few storms may pose enough of a severe risk that a new small weather watch is possible. ..Lyons/Edwards.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35120304 35490291 35580260 35500235 35040217 34150213 33490210 33150211 33040216 32850235 32860264 32930288 33140307 35120304 Read more

WW 697 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 022310Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern New Mexico South Plains and northern Permian Basin of Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...In addition to ongoing severe convection over NM, several strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the watch area on either side of the TX/NM line and move northward to northeastward through this evening, and past the valid time of watch 696. Damaging hail and severe gusts will be the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast of Hobbs NM to 45 miles northeast of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 696... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad trough currently in the Great Basin will continue to move east and lose amplitude through the middle of the week. Another reinforcing trough will dig southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. The trough will intensify in the Upper Midwest before becoming a strong upper low in the Northeast by the weekend. Ridging will build into the West over the next couple of days before slowly moving to the east. At the surface, the seasons first strong cold front will move into the Plains on Wednesday and eventually reach the Gulf/Southeast coasts by the weekend. High pressure will intensify in the Great Basin and Plains behind the front. Areas with the driest fuels from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley are expected to see some amount of precipitation along with cooler temperatures as the front progresses to the southeast. These conditions should keep potential for critical fire weather low during the extended period. ...Southern California... A warming and dry trend can be expected beginning Tuesday. Weak offshore flow is also expected to develop and peak Wednesday and Thursday mornings. While some drying of fuels will occur, the current state of fuels does not suggest much more than locally elevated conditions occurring. Barring any significant changes in fuel dryness over the next few days, the potential for critical fire weather continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing a couple tornadoes, significant large hail, and severe wind gusts remains across parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern High Plains. A few supercells posing a threat for large to perhaps very large hail have developed over parts of central/eastern NM. This convection is expected to spread east-northeastward across the southern High Plains through this evening, while posing a continued threat for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two given a favorable kinematic environment. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 for more details. Isolated thunderstorms should also pose some threat for severe hail/wind gusts across southeastern CO and vicinity. Confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe convection was not high enough to expand the Slight Risk across NM into southeastern CO. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 2210 for more information on the severe risk for this area. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited across the western NE and northeastern CO vicinity this afternoon, although some locations are reporting surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s along/south of a front draped across SD. Thunderstorms should eventually move northeastward off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains, with other convection possibly developing over northeastern CO. Given the well mixed boundary layer, severe downdraft winds still appear to be the primary severe hazard. But, isolated hail may occur with any supercell that can be sustained. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 2209 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. ..Gleason.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Low to mid 60s surface dew points are pervasive across eastern NM and west TX. This will support a broader plume of moderate buoyancy this afternoon relative to the past couple days with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos, initiating in the early afternoon. Several discrete supercells should evolve across east-central/southeast NM and the Permian Basin. Modest low-level curvature beneath a moderately elongated and straight mid to upper hodograph should favor large hail production, some of which should reach golf ball size with potential for a few 2-2.5 inch sizes as well. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, most probable in the east-central NM vicinity where low-level hodographs should be slightly more enlarged with lower LCL heights. Storms should consolidate into east-northeast moving clusters by late afternoon to early evening with a strong to isolated severe wind threat spreading across parts of west TX before weakening after sunset. ...Central High Plains to the Dakotas... A lee cyclone becoming established over northeast CO will track north-northeast into southwest SD this evening as mid-level height falls increase downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough moving from UT into WY. A strengthening baroclinic zone, aided by ongoing differential boundary-layer heating within the nearly cloud-free warm sector and stratus lingering behind the front, will support intensifying thunderstorms that develop northeast off the Front Range. Consensus of 12Z HREF guidance supports a scenario of an organized cluster peaking across the western NE Panhandle vicinity in the late afternoon to early evening with a severe wind and isolated hail threat along the baroclinic zone. The severe wind/hail potential should decrease after sunset, but may continue tonight on an isolated basis across parts of the Dakotas. Read more