Severe Storms

WW 592 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 172035Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Far southwestern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms may develop off across the tri-state area as high-based storms spread east from the Palmer Divide in Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Burlington CO to 55 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 591... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1779 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592... FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1779 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...northwest Kansas and vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592... Valid 180210Z - 180415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592 continues. SUMMARY...The strongest storm has moved out of WW592 into WW594. Elevated storms have redeveloped across Kit Carson, Sherman, and Thomas counties and may pose a low-end severe threat in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Temperatures and dewpoints dropped across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas as storms passed through the area earlier this evening with low-level stable conditions present. However, some forcing for ascent aloft has helped elevated storms redevelop across far eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas along the I-70 corridor. MUCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and marginal effective bulk shear could result in isolated, low-end severe hail and possibly damaging wind if it can penetrate the low-level stable layer. GLD VAD shows north-northeast winds at low-levels indicating limited warm air advection/isentropic lift associated with the low-level jet that is beginning to strengthen across the southern/central Plains. Overall, the potential for severe hail/wind is limited across WW592 before it expires at 04z, but a strong storm or two is possible. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38730042 38720145 38690197 38950213 39260217 39530150 39520015 39469977 39199963 39019994 38730042 Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..NAUSLAR..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-109-137-153-179-193-180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC087-145-180240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ANW TO 30 ESE 9V9 TO 10 SW HON TO 25 ESE VVV TO 25 N AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-180240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-041-073-081-083-101-105-117-121-133-151-173-180240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE ROCK SWIFT YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-179-180240- Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 9V9 TO 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. WW 590 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 9V9 TO 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. WW 590 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 9V9 TO 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. WW 590 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 9V9 TO 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. WW 590 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1778 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...FAR NORTHEASTERN NE...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1778 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern SD into west-central and southwestern MN...far northeastern NE...and far northwestern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593... Valid 180126Z - 180300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind gusts will likely become an increasing concern across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593 this evening. Relatively greater severe wind potential should exist across southeastern SD and vicinity in the short term (next few hours). DISCUSSION...A line of storms has congealed along a cold front this evening across eastern SD into parts of west-central MN. The southern flank of this line across southeastern SD appears to be more robust, as strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is present across this region. A 30-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to strengthen over eastern NE into southeastern SD and vicinity, which will likely maintain storm intensity through the remainder of the evening. Strong inbound velocities have recently been noted on the KFSD radar with storms approaching Sioux Falls SD, with evidence of a rear inflow jet developing. A corridor of severe, damaging winds with gusts of 60-75 mph appears increasingly likely across southeastern SD and vicinity. Isolated large hail may also occur with supercells embedded within the line. Farther north, isolated damaging winds will remain possible into west-central/southwestern MN, but instability does decrease with northward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593. ..Gleason.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 43049943 44029904 44439841 44899711 45399623 46089587 46069491 44969486 43749499 42699538 42359628 42379754 42709879 43049943 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE 9V9 TO 15 WNW HON TO 10 NE ATY TO 5 NNW VVV TO 25 NNE VVV TO 35 NW AXN. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-180140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC011-023-041-051-073-081-083-101-105-117-121-133-149-151-173- 180140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS GRANT LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE ROCK STEVENS SWIFT YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-179-180140- Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 9V9 TO 20 NNW 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 590 SEVERE TSTM SD 171920Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial storms over the Black Hills and northeast along a front in north-central South Dakota will pose a threat for mainly large hail. With time into the evening, one or more clusters is anticipated with an increasing risk for severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Philip SD to 35 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S GLD TO 45 E GLD TO 20 SW MCK TO 20 SW MCK TO 30 E IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 ..NAUSLAR..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-109-137-153-179-193-180140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC087-145-180140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180015Z - 180245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms have developed across the eastern Texas Panhandle, Texas Rolling Plains, and western Oklahoma. Severe wind will be the main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Temperatures warmed into the low 100s F with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 60s F this afternoon/evening across the southern Plains. A surface pressure trough extending southward through the Texas Panhandle along with deep boundary layer mixing helped initiate storms during the last hour or so. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25-40 knots should support some transient supercellular development. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layer, severe wind appears to be the main threat with severe wind recently reportedin Altus and Dickens County, Texas. Large hail is also possible with 1" hail recently reported in Beckham County, Oklahoma. However, warm mid-level temperatures and marginal shear/instability may mitigate hail growth. Storms may grow upscale and continue moving eastward after sunset as the low-level jet strengthens across the area. However, the overall severe threat should remain marginal and relatively isolated, thus a watch issuance is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33589897 33019990 33090064 33930151 34830107 35440074 36550003 36699907 36449832 36239799 35689771 35099773 34499805 34049844 33589897 Read more

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180000Z - 180200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A very isolated severe threat may exist this evening, with large hail and strong/gusty winds possible. However, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the isolated nature of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening across the NE Panhandle ahead of a southward-moving cold front. The boundary layer across this region is very well mixed, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front. As these storms move eastward over the next couple of hours, they should encounter greater low-level moisture and gradually increasing instability. There appears to be some potential for this activity to strengthen as it moves eastward across western/central NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens later this evening mainly over central into eastern NE. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds has overspread this region, which is contributing to similar values of effective bulk shear. Supercells would conditionally be possible given the expected instability/shear parameter space, but overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain through this evening. If storms strengthen, then both large hail and strong/gusty winds would be possible. Regardless, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the expected isolated nature of the severe threat. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42410267 42670167 42659975 42209932 41029930 40970017 40990185 41280233 42080264 42410267 Read more