Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW LIC TO 25 SE AKO TO 20 WSW IML. ..GOSS..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-115-125-170440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW LIC TO 25 SE AKO TO 20 WSW IML. ..GOSS..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-115-125-170440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW LIC TO 25 SE AKO TO 20 WSW IML. ..GOSS..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-115-125-170440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE LHX TO 25 SSW LIC TO 30 SE DEN TO 25 SE DEN TO 40 SW AKO TO 35 SE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-039-061-063-073-075-095-115-121-125-170340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-170340- Read more

WW 588 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 162050Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should develop east off the Front Range with risks for very large hail and severe wind gusts. Uncertainty exists in how far east severe storms will be maintained later this evening into northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Torrington WY to 55 miles south of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1764 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1764 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...eastern Colorado and into western and central portions of Kansas/Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 170143Z - 170345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues over parts of the central high Plains, and should spread eastward this evening into the central Plains. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop over the central high Plains area shows isolated/vigorous storms over portion of eastern Colorado, with some upscale growth now indicated over northeast Colorado -- i.e. the Logan County vicinity -- over the past half hour. Objective analyses continue to indicate a very unstable airmass across Kansas, east of the ongoing storms, while VAD wind profiles indicate a strengthening low-level jet over the Oklahoma/Kansas vicinity. It would appear, given the thermodynamic and kinematic setup, that storms should spread/develop eastward out of WW 588 and into the lower Plains over the next few hours, with the HRRR continuing to forecast this evolution as well. Presuming this evolution, a new WW will likely be needed into larger portions of Kansas -- and possibly Nebraska -- over the next 1-2 hours. Meanwhile, risk for damaging winds and large hail continues within WW 588. ..Goss.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... CYS... LAT...LON 42020527 42930434 42590178 41059858 39289708 38359729 37770172 37910341 38770422 39710452 40910449 42020527 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PUB TO 10 ENE COS TO 20 SSW DEN TO 10 NNW DEN TO 30 NE DEN TO 45 E FCL TO 50 NW AKO TO 45 ESE CYS TO 30 NE CYS TO 45 WSW TOR TO 10 SSW DGW. ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-170240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC007-013-033-057-105-123-157-165-170240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected to continue into tonight from the central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered storms that developed within the upslope flow regime over the higher terrain intensified as they moved into the moderately unstable environment across eastern CO through western NE and where effective shear from 40-50 kt is sufficient for supercells. It remains possible that a cluster of storms might organize and continue east through western KS and or southwest NE. However, there has been a trend for some storms to diminish over northeast CO as they move toward lower elevations where a very warm EML (16C at 700 mb) will result in strong surface based convective inhibition as the boundary layer begins to cool. This lowers confidence in future evolution of the storms moving off the higher terrain and into western KS but will maintain a SLGT risk for this possibility. ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A quasi-stationary front extends from northern MO through central and southwest KS and into southeast CO. The atmosphere is strongly unstable (3000-4000) J/kg MUCAPE) in vicinity of and south of this boundary where a plume of very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates have overspread the moist sector. However, the warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer has also resulted in a substantial cap over much of this region, except in southwest KS and northwest OK where deep mixing has eroded the inversion, resulting in a few high-based severe storms. A substantial increase in storm coverage is expected later this evening into tonight from northern KS, southern NE into northern MO and possibly southern IA. This will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent along and north of the stationary front on nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Most of these storms will probably be slightly elevated, but the thermodynamic environment and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support some supercell structures capable of large to very large hail and isolated damaging wind as the primary threats. Storms may eventually grow upscale with damaging wind becoming the main threat. ..Dial.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected to continue into tonight from the central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered storms that developed within the upslope flow regime over the higher terrain intensified as they moved into the moderately unstable environment across eastern CO through western NE and where effective shear from 40-50 kt is sufficient for supercells. It remains possible that a cluster of storms might organize and continue east through western KS and or southwest NE. However, there has been a trend for some storms to diminish over northeast CO as they move toward lower elevations where a very warm EML (16C at 700 mb) will result in strong surface based convective inhibition as the boundary layer begins to cool. This lowers confidence in future evolution of the storms moving off the higher terrain and into western KS but will maintain a SLGT risk for this possibility. ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A quasi-stationary front extends from northern MO through central and southwest KS and into southeast CO. The atmosphere is strongly unstable (3000-4000) J/kg MUCAPE) in vicinity of and south of this boundary where a plume of very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates have overspread the moist sector. However, the warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer has also resulted in a substantial cap over much of this region, except in southwest KS and northwest OK where deep mixing has eroded the inversion, resulting in a few high-based severe storms. A substantial increase in storm coverage is expected later this evening into tonight from northern KS, southern NE into northern MO and possibly southern IA. This will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent along and north of the stationary front on nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Most of these storms will probably be slightly elevated, but the thermodynamic environment and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support some supercell structures capable of large to very large hail and isolated damaging wind as the primary threats. Storms may eventually grow upscale with damaging wind becoming the main threat. ..Dial.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected to continue into tonight from the central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered storms that developed within the upslope flow regime over the higher terrain intensified as they moved into the moderately unstable environment across eastern CO through western NE and where effective shear from 40-50 kt is sufficient for supercells. It remains possible that a cluster of storms might organize and continue east through western KS and or southwest NE. However, there has been a trend for some storms to diminish over northeast CO as they move toward lower elevations where a very warm EML (16C at 700 mb) will result in strong surface based convective inhibition as the boundary layer begins to cool. This lowers confidence in future evolution of the storms moving off the higher terrain and into western KS but will maintain a SLGT risk for this possibility. ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A quasi-stationary front extends from northern MO through central and southwest KS and into southeast CO. The atmosphere is strongly unstable (3000-4000) J/kg MUCAPE) in vicinity of and south of this boundary where a plume of very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates have overspread the moist sector. However, the warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer has also resulted in a substantial cap over much of this region, except in southwest KS and northwest OK where deep mixing has eroded the inversion, resulting in a few high-based severe storms. A substantial increase in storm coverage is expected later this evening into tonight from northern KS, southern NE into northern MO and possibly southern IA. This will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent along and north of the stationary front on nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Most of these storms will probably be slightly elevated, but the thermodynamic environment and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support some supercell structures capable of large to very large hail and isolated damaging wind as the primary threats. Storms may eventually grow upscale with damaging wind becoming the main threat. ..Dial.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected to continue into tonight from the central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered storms that developed within the upslope flow regime over the higher terrain intensified as they moved into the moderately unstable environment across eastern CO through western NE and where effective shear from 40-50 kt is sufficient for supercells. It remains possible that a cluster of storms might organize and continue east through western KS and or southwest NE. However, there has been a trend for some storms to diminish over northeast CO as they move toward lower elevations where a very warm EML (16C at 700 mb) will result in strong surface based convective inhibition as the boundary layer begins to cool. This lowers confidence in future evolution of the storms moving off the higher terrain and into western KS but will maintain a SLGT risk for this possibility. ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A quasi-stationary front extends from northern MO through central and southwest KS and into southeast CO. The atmosphere is strongly unstable (3000-4000) J/kg MUCAPE) in vicinity of and south of this boundary where a plume of very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates have overspread the moist sector. However, the warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer has also resulted in a substantial cap over much of this region, except in southwest KS and northwest OK where deep mixing has eroded the inversion, resulting in a few high-based severe storms. A substantial increase in storm coverage is expected later this evening into tonight from northern KS, southern NE into northern MO and possibly southern IA. This will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent along and north of the stationary front on nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Most of these storms will probably be slightly elevated, but the thermodynamic environment and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support some supercell structures capable of large to very large hail and isolated damaging wind as the primary threats. Storms may eventually grow upscale with damaging wind becoming the main threat. ..Dial.. 08/17/2019 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 170140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC007-013-033-057-105-123-157-165-170140- Read more

MD 1762 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming...the Nebraska Panhandle...and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 162327Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Storms/severe risk continue to gradually increase across the WW area. DISCUSSION...The latest radar loop over the central High Plains vicinity shows a couple of strong/likely severe storms over Lincoln county, in southwestern portions of WW 588, moving southeastward. New/intense cells have developed quickly across northeast Colorado over the past half hour, while still farther north/northwest, a convective increase is noted over the southeast Wyoming vicinity. Severe risk continues across the watch area, where an axis of strong instability -- aided by a southeasterly influx of low-level moisture -- is indicated. Very large hail remains possible, along with locally damaging winds. With time, storms are expected to spread -- or redevelop -- eastward into more of Kansas and Nebraska, as a low-level jet intensifies this evening. We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with a new watch/watches anticipated east of the existing WW, during the evening. ..Goss.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38060339 38870406 40680508 42430538 43190436 42960294 41040065 38290072 38060339 Read more