Severe Storms

MD 1758 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...southeast Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 161104Z - 161200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms continue this morning all continue to exhibit a slow weakening trend. As such a new watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...Three distinct thunderstorm clusters are evident across the region this morning: 1) south-central Missouri -- the remnants of the original bow; 2)west-central Missouri -- the remnants of the initial warm-air advection storms; and 3)southeast Kansas -- newer warm-air advection storms. The remnants of the earlier bow echo continue to move east-southeast across south-central Missouri. The airmass along and ahead of this cluster should become increasingly hostile to thunderstorm maintenance, let alone severe maintenance. Most-unstable CAPE quickly drops off to near nothing to the east of the storms, and deep-layer shear decreases as well. Thus, the severe threat along and ahead of this cluster is low. The remnants of the initial warm-air advection storms across northeast Kansas have continued to slowly move east into western Missouri. Despite being fed from a moderately unstable airmass to the west, the persistent, slow-moving nature of the storms has likely stabilized the airmass in the immediate vicinity of the complex. This, combined with a weakening low-level jet, and subsequent decrease in warm-air advection later this morning, the overall severe threat should remain limited. Hail will be the primary severe threat. The newer warm-air advection thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas should continue for a few more hours. Here, the airmass is less worked over than areas farther north and east, suggesting a potential for severe hail. At the same time deep-layer shear is less, which would argue for less thunderstorm organization and less organized severe potential. Based on observed trends, some potential exists for a thunderstorm or two to briefly support hail in excess of 1 inch. However, the severe threat should remain poorly organized. All-in-all, while severe hail or wind cannot be ruled out anywhere within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587, the overall severe threat is much less than earlier. Current expectations are that ongoing watch #587 will be allowed to expire at the top of the hour, with no plans for an additional watch. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36769631 39679430 36759107 36769631 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNU TO 35 NE CNU TO 20 WNW OJC TO 20 S FNB. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-005-011-021-037-091-099-103-107-121-133-205-209-161040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI NEOSHO WILSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-161040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNU TO 35 NE CNU TO 20 WNW OJC TO 20 S FNB. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-005-011-021-037-091-099-103-107-121-133-205-209-161040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI NEOSHO WILSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-161040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER Read more

WW 587 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 160500Z - 161200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and central Missouri * Effective this Friday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will spread southeastward across eastern Kansas and western into central Missouri overnight. The environment will support the possibility of additional supercells/bowing segments capable of large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Leavenworth KS to 30 miles west southwest of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585...WW 586... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SNY TO 25 SE AIA TO 45 ESE AIA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-171-161040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SNY TO 25 SE AIA TO 45 ESE AIA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-171-161040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 586 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 160440Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1040 PM until 500 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify through the overnight hours as a seasonally strong mid-level disturbance approaches the region. The environment will support southeastward-moving supercells and well-organized clusters capable of large hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Douglas WY to 40 miles east of Alliance NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MHK TO 40 SSE BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-021-031-037-045-059-073-085-087-091-099-103- 107-111-121-133-139-149-177-197-205-207-209-160840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-160840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TOR TO 30 NE TOR TO 50 NE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-069-123-157-161-165-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE GARDEN MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1756 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 160734Z - 160900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. These thunderstorms will continue through the night. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue on the eastern periphery of a warm low-level airmass across central Kansas. This complex of thunderstorms is exhibiting a modified "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective system structure, with a leading bow echo -- now over southwest Missouri -- and trailing line of thunderstorms behind the initial bow echo -- fed by warm-air advection emanating from a moist, warm low-level airmass across central Kansas. Generally speaking, a threat for hail and gusty winds will continue for a couple more hours with the leading bow across southern Missouri. Behind this bow, thunderstorms will continue to be fed by an unimpeded fetch of moist, unstable air (where most-unstable CAPE values will be in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg). Although deep-layer shear is less than to the northwest, values around 30-40 knots will be more than sufficient to support updraft organization and a continued threat of large hail and gusty winds through the morning. Unless additional development becomes apparent across portions of southeast Kansas, western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587 may be cleared from the watch before expiration later this morning. This will be monitored. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39579655 39559576 39669576 39639508 39799482 39799464 39749462 39759425 39559417 39529373 39589374 39609332 39219286 39019285 38969254 38689262 38669284 38419256 38349218 37979202 37599202 37609223 37459224 37449267 37069268 37099358 36929359 36919403 37039404 37059460 36999462 37019555 37339550 37379591 37599597 37609646 38089648 38099633 38739634 38819646 39049645 39059636 39139636 39179650 39409672 39579655 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more