Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150456Z - 150630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail and locally strong to damaging gusts into the early morning hours. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue over northeast WY and western SD. Several CAM solutions maintain storms into the morning hours from southwest SD into western NE. The strongest forcing for ascent appears to remain in MT in association with a progressive shortwave trough. The surface layer has stabilized, but convective inhibition for parcels lifted from above the surface remains relatively weak. While larger-scale forcing appears rather nebulous and subtle, trend has been for storms to increase in coverage, and activity may continue southeast along the instability gradient. MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and effective shear from 40-45 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation and a threat for large hail. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43490476 44080466 44200274 43260196 42100185 41690337 42760423 43490476 Read more

MD 1739 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 150214Z - 150345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue developing southeast through northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota this evening, posing a risk for isolated large hail and downburst winds. At this time it appears storm coverage will probably remain too sparse for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a few storms persist over southeast MT, with the strongest storm having supercell characteristics approaching the northeast WY border. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. A modest increase in convective inhibition is occurring with respect to surface-based parcels with onset of nocturnal cooling. However, a few storms may persist with slightly elevated updrafts having inflow rooted just above the surface. Thus isolated storms could persist into a portion of western SD and extreme northeast WY and pose a threat for large hail and downburst winds this evening. Stronger forcing accompanying a shortwave trough moving through eastern MT should remain north of this region. This along with the absence of a substantial low-level jet suggest storm coverage will probably remain very isolated. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 43360396 44120500 44760594 45560411 44640295 43530271 43360396 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SNY TO 25 NNE AKO TO 35 SW IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 ..DIAL..08/15/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-121-123-125-150140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-181-199-150140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SNY TO 25 NNE AKO TO 35 SW IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 ..DIAL..08/15/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-121-123-125-150140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-181-199-150140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 142100Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A supercell or two may become sustained along a weak boundary near the Wyoming-Colorado-Nebraska border, moving southeast across eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 45 miles southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1738 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...northeast Colorado through northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582... Valid 142358Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and downburst winds will persist through about 02Z, followed by a diminishing trend. DISCUSSION...New storms have recently developed near the CO/northwest KS border along what appears to be the merger between a northwest-southeast oriented boundary and a southwest advancing outflow boundary. It remains possible that other isolated storms may develop farther northwest over the higher terrain and spread southeast. Vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear support potential for some supercell structures. Activity is developing within an environment characterized by weak forcing aloft suggesting storms are mostly diurnally driven and should remain isolated. Convective inhibition will increase substantially with onset of nocturnal cooling, and storms are expected to begin a gradual weakening trend by 02Z. ..Dial.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41000272 39790175 38840168 38580242 38690370 39250431 40830459 41000272 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 14 22:33:03 UTC 2019.

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-142340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-181-199-142340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE NEC033-057-105-142340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DUNDY KIMBALL Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 142100Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A supercell or two may become sustained along a weak boundary near the Wyoming-Colorado-Nebraska border, moving southeast across eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 45 miles southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0582 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IN INTO NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...portions of northeast IN into northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142010Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms could produce marginal hail and gusty winds through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have increased in intensity this afternoon from Marshall to Allen counties in IN and Van Wert County in OH. The most intense cell currently is near Fort Wayne, where a cell has interacted with an outflow boundary from a previous decaying cell. This cell has shown some weak rotation, which has probably been enhanced by the interaction with the aforementioned boundary. Some strong gusts and marginal hail are possible with strongest cells this afternoon given around 30 kt effective shear and a weak mid/upper level impulse migrating through westerly deep layer flow. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and limit severe hail potential. Steep low level lapse rates and a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will favor some stronger downdrafts and gusty winds. Overall, the threat should remain limited in intensity and coverage and a watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX... LAT...LON 41638654 41658622 41338515 40908383 40548322 40338326 40108359 40188419 40658542 41188634 41468661 41638654 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The elevated delineation was expanded to further cover portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin, where the latest guidance suggests elevated to potentially locally critical conditions may occur. In addition, a couple of dry strikes may occur along the periphery of overall wetter, very isolated storms across northern Idaho into western and southwestern Montana during the late afternoon hours. However, the very sparse storm coverage and overall lack of receptiveness of fuels precludes an isolated thunderstorm delineation. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 08/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The elevated delineation was expanded to further cover portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin, where the latest guidance suggests elevated to potentially locally critical conditions may occur. In addition, a couple of dry strikes may occur along the periphery of overall wetter, very isolated storms across northern Idaho into western and southwestern Montana during the late afternoon hours. However, the very sparse storm coverage and overall lack of receptiveness of fuels precludes an isolated thunderstorm delineation. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 08/14/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more