Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning activity not expected the remainder of the period. As such, the thunder area across this region is being removed. Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region, later in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be low for Saturday. A weak surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains through the day, resulting in westerly downslope flow across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but should remain sufficiently localized over a region with only modestly dry fuels, negating the need for highlights. Across southern CA, lingering offshore flow may support localized elevated conditions in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but the potential for widespread elevated conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Fast, low-amplitude flow aloft will persist across the U.S. Saturday, with multiple embedded/weak disturbances traversing the country through the period. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail over the eastern half of the country, north of a weak Gulf Coastal baroclinic zone, and a High-Plains lee trough that will migrate eastward into the lower Plains with time. Thunderstorm activity will remain subdued across the country. A few flashes may occur over portions of northern Washington State and vicinity as a short-wave trough moves inland across western Canada. A few flashes may also occur near, and just off, the central Gulf Coast near the weak surface boundary. Elsewhere, a flash or two cannot be ruled out over portions of the central Plains in conjunction with a weak/fast-moving trough, and near the Texas Gulf Coast early in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Fast, low-amplitude flow aloft will persist across the U.S. Saturday, with multiple embedded/weak disturbances traversing the country through the period. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail over the eastern half of the country, north of a weak Gulf Coastal baroclinic zone, and a High-Plains lee trough that will migrate eastward into the lower Plains with time. Thunderstorm activity will remain subdued across the country. A few flashes may occur over portions of northern Washington State and vicinity as a short-wave trough moves inland across western Canada. A few flashes may also occur near, and just off, the central Gulf Coast near the weak surface boundary. Elsewhere, a flash or two cannot be ruled out over portions of the central Plains in conjunction with a weak/fast-moving trough, and near the Texas Gulf Coast early in the period. ..Goss.. 11/10/2023 Read more