Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more