Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E HSE TO 45 NE EWN TO 35 ESE RWI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..SMITH..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-055-073-091-095-117-139-143-177-187-060640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..MOSIER..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107- 117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-060540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060540- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1934 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 637... FOR +PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...+Parts of eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 637... Valid 060345Z - 060545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado or two remains possible with the more persistently rotating storms in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian. The threat area will gradually shift north-northeast throughout the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Relatively low-topped storms, including occasional transient supercells, have been concentrated in a few confluence bands across far eastern North Carolina, close to the Virginia border. These bands are persisting in an environment characterized by very modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and effective SRH exceeding 300 m2/s2 per latest mesoanalysis. The axis of instability, and subsequent overlap of favorable CAPE/shear parameter space is slowly shifting offshore. In addition, lightning density has been on a slowly decreasing trend over the past couple of hours, with a decrease in low-level rotation/mesoscyclone frequency as well. Still, given the strong low-level shear and adequate (albeit marginal) instability in place, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with the more intense, sustained updrafts across portions of northeast North Carolina into extreme southeast Virginia through the overnight hours. The aforementioned band(s) of convection are expected to persist over the next few hours. The threat area will spread northeastward across far northeast North Carolina into far southeast Virginia, along with the isolated tornado threat, before moving offshore as Hurricane Dorian continues on its current trajectory. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 34797807 36537695 36887648 36927588 36417538 35577514 34997550 34647608 34797807 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107- 117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-060340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 637... FOR EASTERN NC...FAR SOUTHEASTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...Eastern NC...Far Southeastern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 637... Valid 060031Z - 060230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes continues across eastern NC and far southeastern VA. DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar imagery, the center of Hurricane Dorian appears to be about 60 miles south of Wilmington, NC. Two well-defined rain bands exist, one about 125 miles from the center and the other about 160 miles. The southern band currently extends from Craven County NC southeastward offshore while the northern band extends from Martin County NC southeastward offshore. Lightning and a few transient circulations have been noted within the northern band. As of 0025Z, only a few lightning strikes have been noted within the southern band. Both of these bands are expected to gradually move northward over the next several hours. Any tornado potential over the next two hours will likely occur within these bands as cells sporadically deepen. ..Mosier.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36177744 36547681 36517601 36177542 34307536 34277720 34897809 36177744 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 5 23:01:02 UTC 2019.

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 637 TORNADO NC VA CW 052215Z - 061100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Extreme southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 615 PM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Threat for occasional supercells with tornadoes will persist through tonight within the outer northeastern rain bands of hurricane Dorian. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 25 miles south southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 636. Watch number 636 will not be in effect after 615 PM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 10045. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1932 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 636... FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...Eastern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 636... Valid 052045Z - 052245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift north across ww636. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC - Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636, continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 32877608 33757652 34357723 34587812 35127863 35707835 35577703 34297557 32957542 32877608 Read more

MD 1931 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON...NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 1931 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...portions of central/southern Oregon...northeast California...central/northern Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052028Z - 052300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are developing over portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Marginally severe hail/wind will be possible with these storms into tonight as storms move north-northeast. DISCUSSION...A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough is slowly moving east-northeast just off the Pacific Northwest/northern California coast. Additionally, smaller-scale mid-level disturbances appear to be rotating around the upper high across the Great Basin. These features are helping to provide forcing for ascent and increase moisture advection across northern portions of the Intermountain West. Deepening terrain-thermal circulations along with falling heights/steepening mid-level lapse rates are helping to develop thunderstorms across the Intermountain West. Mid-level flow strengthens westward from central Nevada to the Pacific Northwest coast increasing shear, which will help organize/strengthen some of these storms. Buoyancy/instability will continue to increase into the evening, which will allow for greater storm coverage and intensification. Given the high LCLs (2-3 km AGL), severe wind is possible, especially where precipitable water values are higher (central Nevada into western Oregon, 0.8"+). Severe hail is also possible with the steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km) and surface-6 km bulk shear of 25-40 knots. Given the marginal and expected isolated coverage of severe storms, a watch issuance is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 38731699 38901836 39231973 41072007 42102292 43522288 44942220 45052093 44631965 42591884 41711812 41591643 41451584 40701543 39891534 39171559 38731699 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Discussion... The current outlook areas and reasoning continue to reflect the ongoing convective scenario across the U.S., with few changes necessary at this time. Minor adjustments are being made to the risk areas over the Carolinas, to reflect minor progression of Dorian since the prior outlook issuance. Otherwise, no substantive changes appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/05/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019/ ...Eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia... After an active morning for rotating storms/tornadoes across coastal North Carolina, tornado potential will continue and gradually transition north-northeastward this afternoon through tonight in association with a strengthening/spatially transitioning low-level flow field on the periphery of Hurricane Dorian. This tornado threat should also develop northward into coastal southeast Virginia by tonight. ...Oregon and northern portions of California/Nevada... As early-morning cloud cover quickly thins/moves out of the region, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected by peak heating, particularly across west-central/southern Oregon. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern California coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail, particularly across Oregon. Some severe-caliber thunderstorm-related wind gusts may occur as far east/southeast as Nevada. ...Upper Midwest... Associated with a fast-moving clipper-type shortwave trough, a few severe storms will remain possible today from eastern Minnesota across northern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Severe hail is the most probable severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Discussion... The current outlook areas and reasoning continue to reflect the ongoing convective scenario across the U.S., with few changes necessary at this time. Minor adjustments are being made to the risk areas over the Carolinas, to reflect minor progression of Dorian since the prior outlook issuance. Otherwise, no substantive changes appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/05/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019/ ...Eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia... After an active morning for rotating storms/tornadoes across coastal North Carolina, tornado potential will continue and gradually transition north-northeastward this afternoon through tonight in association with a strengthening/spatially transitioning low-level flow field on the periphery of Hurricane Dorian. This tornado threat should also develop northward into coastal southeast Virginia by tonight. ...Oregon and northern portions of California/Nevada... As early-morning cloud cover quickly thins/moves out of the region, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected by peak heating, particularly across west-central/southern Oregon. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern California coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail, particularly across Oregon. Some severe-caliber thunderstorm-related wind gusts may occur as far east/southeast as Nevada. ...Upper Midwest... Associated with a fast-moving clipper-type shortwave trough, a few severe storms will remain possible today from eastern Minnesota across northern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Severe hail is the most probable severe risk. Read more