Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast, a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Southern US... Northern Mexico short-wave trough is forecast to eject into west TX by 14/00z, but a weaker low-amplitude short-wave trough may precede this feature, at a lower latitude, ensuring the main surface low holds off the TX Coast. Latest model guidance maintains the primary surface baroclinic zone offshore through the period. Late this evening, organized convection is noted along this boundary, roughly 50 miles east of Padre Island. As a result, the primary focus for organized thunderstorms will remain just offshore. However, elevated convection should evolve within a warm advection corridor from the coastal Plain of TX into the LA Gulf Coastal region where forecast buoyancy supports lightning. Downstream, weak showers are currently moving inland along the central FL Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings maintain weak buoyancy through the period as roughly 3km deep easterly flow will persist Monday. Some of the deeper updrafts may generate lightning, but overall this activity should remain isolated. ...Lower Great Lakes... Strong 500mb speed max will translate southeast across lower MI into central PA by late afternoon which will allow much cooler temperatures to spread across the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates will steepen significantly as this occurs and weak buoyancy will develop over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. Some risk for lightning will be noted with convection across this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast, a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Southern US... Northern Mexico short-wave trough is forecast to eject into west TX by 14/00z, but a weaker low-amplitude short-wave trough may precede this feature, at a lower latitude, ensuring the main surface low holds off the TX Coast. Latest model guidance maintains the primary surface baroclinic zone offshore through the period. Late this evening, organized convection is noted along this boundary, roughly 50 miles east of Padre Island. As a result, the primary focus for organized thunderstorms will remain just offshore. However, elevated convection should evolve within a warm advection corridor from the coastal Plain of TX into the LA Gulf Coastal region where forecast buoyancy supports lightning. Downstream, weak showers are currently moving inland along the central FL Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings maintain weak buoyancy through the period as roughly 3km deep easterly flow will persist Monday. Some of the deeper updrafts may generate lightning, but overall this activity should remain isolated. ...Lower Great Lakes... Strong 500mb speed max will translate southeast across lower MI into central PA by late afternoon which will allow much cooler temperatures to spread across the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates will steepen significantly as this occurs and weak buoyancy will develop over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. Some risk for lightning will be noted with convection across this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...01z Update... Upper trough currently located over the Gulf of CA will eject east and approach the TX Big Bend by the end of the period. Latest lightning data continues to depict scattered thunderstorms over the higher plateau of northern Mexico, well west of the Big Bend. Some of this activity may spread east of the river later tonight. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to focus along the lower/middle TX Coast. Elevated convection should develop north of the coastal boundary and some of this activity could produce lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...01z Update... Upper trough currently located over the Gulf of CA will eject east and approach the TX Big Bend by the end of the period. Latest lightning data continues to depict scattered thunderstorms over the higher plateau of northern Mexico, well west of the Big Bend. Some of this activity may spread east of the river later tonight. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to focus along the lower/middle TX Coast. Elevated convection should develop north of the coastal boundary and some of this activity could produce lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...01z Update... Upper trough currently located over the Gulf of CA will eject east and approach the TX Big Bend by the end of the period. Latest lightning data continues to depict scattered thunderstorms over the higher plateau of northern Mexico, well west of the Big Bend. Some of this activity may spread east of the river later tonight. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to focus along the lower/middle TX Coast. Elevated convection should develop north of the coastal boundary and some of this activity could produce lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US through D4 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D4 - Wednesday through D7 - Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California on D3 - Tuesday before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D5 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US through D4 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D4 - Wednesday through D7 - Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California on D3 - Tuesday before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D5 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US through D4 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D4 - Wednesday through D7 - Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California on D3 - Tuesday before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D5 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 12 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 12 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes or additions have been made to the 1630Z outlook (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes or additions have been made to the 1630Z outlook (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes or additions have been made to the 1630Z outlook (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes or additions have been made to the 1630Z outlook (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes or additions have been made to the 1630Z outlook (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. Read more