Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the U.S. on Saturday across far northwest Washington, the lower and middle Texas coast, and along the eastern coast of Florida. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in northwest Washington near the trough, as it moves inland during the day. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast near the western edge of a moist airmass in the Gulf of Mexico. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across south Texas, and over portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico. ...01z Update... Surface front is forecast to advance into deep South TX by 06z, then into the lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Broad southwesterly flow atop this frontal surge will continue to encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning should be fairly sparse. However, greater buoyancy currently exists across the TX Coastal Plain, especially southern areas. 00z sounding from CRP exhibits modest buoyancy, but weak lapse rates due to a moist profile (PW around 2 inches). Latest lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in this higher-instability air mass, just southwest of CRP. Current thinking is most lightning flashes will be noted across deep South TX the rest of the period. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have weakened over southwest NM into northern Mexico. Even so, a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out across this region tonight with weak convection that evolves ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. ..Darrow.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across south Texas, and over portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico. ...01z Update... Surface front is forecast to advance into deep South TX by 06z, then into the lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Broad southwesterly flow atop this frontal surge will continue to encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning should be fairly sparse. However, greater buoyancy currently exists across the TX Coastal Plain, especially southern areas. 00z sounding from CRP exhibits modest buoyancy, but weak lapse rates due to a moist profile (PW around 2 inches). Latest lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in this higher-instability air mass, just southwest of CRP. Current thinking is most lightning flashes will be noted across deep South TX the rest of the period. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have weakened over southwest NM into northern Mexico. Even so, a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out across this region tonight with weak convection that evolves ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. ..Darrow.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across south Texas, and over portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico. ...01z Update... Surface front is forecast to advance into deep South TX by 06z, then into the lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Broad southwesterly flow atop this frontal surge will continue to encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning should be fairly sparse. However, greater buoyancy currently exists across the TX Coastal Plain, especially southern areas. 00z sounding from CRP exhibits modest buoyancy, but weak lapse rates due to a moist profile (PW around 2 inches). Latest lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in this higher-instability air mass, just southwest of CRP. Current thinking is most lightning flashes will be noted across deep South TX the rest of the period. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have weakened over southwest NM into northern Mexico. Even so, a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out across this region tonight with weak convection that evolves ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. ..Darrow.. 11/10/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 9 22:14:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 9 22:14:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the West on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, a moderate offshore pressure gradient will develop once again across portions of southern CA during this time frame. While elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, medium-range model guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical winds -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Father east, westerly midlevel flow across the Rockies will promote several days of lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions over the High Plains during the extended forecast period. However, a minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the West on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, a moderate offshore pressure gradient will develop once again across portions of southern CA during this time frame. While elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, medium-range model guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical winds -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Father east, westerly midlevel flow across the Rockies will promote several days of lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions over the High Plains during the extended forecast period. However, a minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the West on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, a moderate offshore pressure gradient will develop once again across portions of southern CA during this time frame. While elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, medium-range model guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical winds -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Father east, westerly midlevel flow across the Rockies will promote several days of lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions over the High Plains during the extended forecast period. However, a minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the West on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, a moderate offshore pressure gradient will develop once again across portions of southern CA during this time frame. While elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, medium-range model guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical winds -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Father east, westerly midlevel flow across the Rockies will promote several days of lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions over the High Plains during the extended forecast period. However, a minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east across the ArkLaTex region, and the thunder line has been shifting east to account for the progression of the cold front. Severe weather remains unlikely through the period. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east across the ArkLaTex region, and the thunder line has been shifting east to account for the progression of the cold front. Severe weather remains unlikely through the period. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east across the ArkLaTex region, and the thunder line has been shifting east to account for the progression of the cold front. Severe weather remains unlikely through the period. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. Read more