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1 year 10 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
Scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east across the ArkLaTex
region, and the thunder line has been shifting east to account for
the progression of the cold front. Severe weather remains unlikely
through the period.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
Scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east across the ArkLaTex
region, and the thunder line has been shifting east to account for
the progression of the cold front. Severe weather remains unlikely
through the period.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather
concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire
weather concerns will be marginal.
The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may
exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee
cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough
crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy
southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border.
However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather
concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire
weather concerns will be marginal.
The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may
exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee
cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough
crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy
southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border.
However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather
concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire
weather concerns will be marginal.
The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may
exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee
cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough
crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy
southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border.
However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather
concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire
weather concerns will be marginal.
The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may
exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee
cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough
crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy
southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border.
However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather
concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire
weather concerns will be marginal.
The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may
exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee
cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough
crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy
southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border.
However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal
Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open
wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest
west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into
the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies,
with one over NM and another over MT/WY.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf
of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from
far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be
moving in from the north.
The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes
near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm
advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak
elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in
either case.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal
Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open
wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest
west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into
the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies,
with one over NM and another over MT/WY.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf
of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from
far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be
moving in from the north.
The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes
near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm
advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak
elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in
either case.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal
Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open
wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest
west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into
the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies,
with one over NM and another over MT/WY.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf
of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from
far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be
moving in from the north.
The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes
near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm
advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak
elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in
either case.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal
Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open
wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest
west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into
the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies,
with one over NM and another over MT/WY.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf
of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from
far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be
moving in from the north.
The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes
near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm
advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak
elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in
either case.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal
Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open
wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest
west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into
the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies,
with one over NM and another over MT/WY.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf
of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from
far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be
moving in from the north.
The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes
near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm
advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak
elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in
either case.
..Jewell.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes
were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict
dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent
RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy
conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds
decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time
frame.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been
observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The
LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of
-10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning
hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire
weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues
to weaken.
Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this
region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes
were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict
dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent
RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy
conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds
decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time
frame.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been
observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The
LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of
-10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning
hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire
weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues
to weaken.
Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this
region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes
were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict
dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent
RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy
conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds
decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time
frame.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been
observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The
LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of
-10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning
hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire
weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues
to weaken.
Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this
region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes
were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict
dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent
RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy
conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds
decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time
frame.
..Weinman.. 11/09/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/
...Synopsis...
Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been
observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The
LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of
-10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning
hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire
weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues
to weaken.
Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this
region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.
..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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