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1 year 10 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Great Lakes area through tonight...
An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this
morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes
by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be
located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated
surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS
this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight.
Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm
sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread
northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy
is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the
stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from
southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850
mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through
the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the
strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long
hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail
greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook
area.
...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight...
Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across
TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach
central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a
small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front
09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any
storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm
temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge
separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior
to 12z.
..Thompson.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper
pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains
on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and
Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the
northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward
from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging
is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario.
The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level
moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout
the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through,
but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe
potential is low.
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced
confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This
troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the
Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift
eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by
Friday night.
Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then
northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it
does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX
Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave
well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will
stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley,
contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX
Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning
flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores.
Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.
..Mosier.. 11/08/2023
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds
are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning
Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on
Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the
Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin
will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this
round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy
conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels
are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high
pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon
this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this
afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across
southern California during the day today with some assistance from
surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the
surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some
weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across
the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the
gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore
flow developing, particularly in Ventura county.
Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across
parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear
somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an
Elevated delineation.
..Bentley.. 11/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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