Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 7 21:57:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Southern California... An expansive surface high over the Intermountain West will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern CA on Day 3/Thursday. The best overlap of strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry conditions will continue across portions of southern CA on Day 5/Friday, though the aforementioned surface high will weaken, with a corresponding weakening of the offshore pressure gradient and surface winds. Thereafter, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, favoring a strengthening surface high and offshore pressure gradient over southern CA on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. While this could lead to an additional increase in fire-weather potential, medium-range guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Southern California... An expansive surface high over the Intermountain West will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern CA on Day 3/Thursday. The best overlap of strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry conditions will continue across portions of southern CA on Day 5/Friday, though the aforementioned surface high will weaken, with a corresponding weakening of the offshore pressure gradient and surface winds. Thereafter, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, favoring a strengthening surface high and offshore pressure gradient over southern CA on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. While this could lead to an additional increase in fire-weather potential, medium-range guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Southern California... An expansive surface high over the Intermountain West will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern CA on Day 3/Thursday. The best overlap of strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry conditions will continue across portions of southern CA on Day 5/Friday, though the aforementioned surface high will weaken, with a corresponding weakening of the offshore pressure gradient and surface winds. Thereafter, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, favoring a strengthening surface high and offshore pressure gradient over southern CA on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. While this could lead to an additional increase in fire-weather potential, medium-range guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Southern California... An expansive surface high over the Intermountain West will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern CA on Day 3/Thursday. The best overlap of strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry conditions will continue across portions of southern CA on Day 5/Friday, though the aforementioned surface high will weaken, with a corresponding weakening of the offshore pressure gradient and surface winds. Thereafter, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, favoring a strengthening surface high and offshore pressure gradient over southern CA on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. While this could lead to an additional increase in fire-weather potential, medium-range guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Southern California... An expansive surface high over the Intermountain West will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern CA on Day 3/Thursday. The best overlap of strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry conditions will continue across portions of southern CA on Day 5/Friday, though the aforementioned surface high will weaken, with a corresponding weakening of the offshore pressure gradient and surface winds. Thereafter, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, favoring a strengthening surface high and offshore pressure gradient over southern CA on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. While this could lead to an additional increase in fire-weather potential, medium-range guidance depicts an offshore pressure gradient typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. While locally critical conditions are possible in wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, these conditions appear too localized for a Critical area at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more