Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more