Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... A Critical area was added for portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. In addition, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southern CO along the I-25 corridor. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, dried, freeze-cured grasses are now supportive of carrying fires over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given the expectation for several hours of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For southern CO, high-resolution guidance has trended stronger with sustained surface winds over the I-25 corridor, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (especially through the gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more