Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, dry/breezy conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and gap-flow areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO. Strengthening westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating west of a lee trough/dryline will yield 10-15 percent RH this afternoon. These dry conditions, coupled with 15-20 mph sustained surface winds (locally higher), could lead to localized fire-weather concerns. However, marginally receptive fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. Farther east, northerly surface winds and related continental trajectories down the FL peninsula will aid in dry boundary-layer conditions (25-30 percent RH) across northern/central FL this afternoon. While sustained surface winds around 10 mph should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk, locally elevated conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level jet will extend from the eastern Pacific into the central Rockies today. A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to cross the Rockies today which will assist in cyclogenesis across the Plains. The majority of strong winds will be where fuels remain moist and relative humidity remains high. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across southeast Wyoming, beneath the stronger mid-level jet, but fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. An extended dry spell across the Southeast and into the Carolinas continues to cure fuels in the region. Fuels are starting to reach critically dry levels in spots, but winds should remain light for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but winds should remain too light for a greater threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, dry/breezy conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and gap-flow areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO. Strengthening westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating west of a lee trough/dryline will yield 10-15 percent RH this afternoon. These dry conditions, coupled with 15-20 mph sustained surface winds (locally higher), could lead to localized fire-weather concerns. However, marginally receptive fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. Farther east, northerly surface winds and related continental trajectories down the FL peninsula will aid in dry boundary-layer conditions (25-30 percent RH) across northern/central FL this afternoon. While sustained surface winds around 10 mph should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk, locally elevated conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level jet will extend from the eastern Pacific into the central Rockies today. A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to cross the Rockies today which will assist in cyclogenesis across the Plains. The majority of strong winds will be where fuels remain moist and relative humidity remains high. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across southeast Wyoming, beneath the stronger mid-level jet, but fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. An extended dry spell across the Southeast and into the Carolinas continues to cure fuels in the region. Fuels are starting to reach critically dry levels in spots, but winds should remain light for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but winds should remain too light for a greater threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest California coasts. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding. ...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ..Thompson.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest California coasts. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding. ...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ..Thompson.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest California coasts. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding. ...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ..Thompson.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest California coasts. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding. ...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ..Thompson.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest California coasts. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding. ...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ..Thompson.. 11/05/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Phased shortwave troughs are expected to result in modest upper troughing from the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into central CA early D4/Wednesday morning. Northern-stream shortwave is forecast to make quick eastward progress while the southern-stream shortwave trough trends slower as it moves over the Southwest. At the same time, a surface low initially over KS/OK will likely move quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep southward/southeastward in its wake, moving through OK and the TX Panhandle and Mid MS and OH Valleys. Thunderstorms along this front will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition. Thunderstorm chances appear to increase on D5/Thursday across the southern Plains as the front continues gradually southward and the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned previously continues eastward into the region. Buoyancy should remain modest, keeping severe potential low. By D6/Friday, dry and stable conditions are likely across the majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Southeast and FL. A few thunderstorm appear possible as the front continues southeastward across the Southeast and FL on D6/Friday and D7/Saturday, but scant buoyancy will again limit the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Phased shortwave troughs are expected to result in modest upper troughing from the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into central CA early D4/Wednesday morning. Northern-stream shortwave is forecast to make quick eastward progress while the southern-stream shortwave trough trends slower as it moves over the Southwest. At the same time, a surface low initially over KS/OK will likely move quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep southward/southeastward in its wake, moving through OK and the TX Panhandle and Mid MS and OH Valleys. Thunderstorms along this front will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition. Thunderstorm chances appear to increase on D5/Thursday across the southern Plains as the front continues gradually southward and the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned previously continues eastward into the region. Buoyancy should remain modest, keeping severe potential low. By D6/Friday, dry and stable conditions are likely across the majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Southeast and FL. A few thunderstorm appear possible as the front continues southeastward across the Southeast and FL on D6/Friday and D7/Saturday, but scant buoyancy will again limit the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Phased shortwave troughs are expected to result in modest upper troughing from the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into central CA early D4/Wednesday morning. Northern-stream shortwave is forecast to make quick eastward progress while the southern-stream shortwave trough trends slower as it moves over the Southwest. At the same time, a surface low initially over KS/OK will likely move quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep southward/southeastward in its wake, moving through OK and the TX Panhandle and Mid MS and OH Valleys. Thunderstorms along this front will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition. Thunderstorm chances appear to increase on D5/Thursday across the southern Plains as the front continues gradually southward and the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned previously continues eastward into the region. Buoyancy should remain modest, keeping severe potential low. By D6/Friday, dry and stable conditions are likely across the majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Southeast and FL. A few thunderstorm appear possible as the front continues southeastward across the Southeast and FL on D6/Friday and D7/Saturday, but scant buoyancy will again limit the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Phased shortwave troughs are expected to result in modest upper troughing from the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into central CA early D4/Wednesday morning. Northern-stream shortwave is forecast to make quick eastward progress while the southern-stream shortwave trough trends slower as it moves over the Southwest. At the same time, a surface low initially over KS/OK will likely move quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep southward/southeastward in its wake, moving through OK and the TX Panhandle and Mid MS and OH Valleys. Thunderstorms along this front will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition. Thunderstorm chances appear to increase on D5/Thursday across the southern Plains as the front continues gradually southward and the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned previously continues eastward into the region. Buoyancy should remain modest, keeping severe potential low. By D6/Friday, dry and stable conditions are likely across the majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Southeast and FL. A few thunderstorm appear possible as the front continues southeastward across the Southeast and FL on D6/Friday and D7/Saturday, but scant buoyancy will again limit the severe potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level jet will extend from the eastern Pacific into the central Rockies today. A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to cross the Rockies today which will assist in cyclogenesis across the Plains. The majority of strong winds will be where fuels remain moist and relative humidity remains high. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across southeast Wyoming, beneath the stronger mid-level jet, but fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. An extended dry spell across the Southeast and into the Carolinas continues to cure fuels in the region. Fuels are starting to reach critically dry levels in spots, but winds should remain light for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but winds should remain too light for a greater threat. ..Bentley.. 11/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more