Severe Storms

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LBF TO 35 WNW BBW TO 35 S ANW TO 35 SE ONL. ..GLEASON..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-041-071-115-183-261040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CUSTER GARFIELD LOUP WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 621 SEVERE TSTM NE 260330Z - 261100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 930 PM until 500 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An isolated intense severe thunderstorm will initially impact far northwest Nebraska late this evening, with additional development and a general expansion of storms expected into the overnight. Large hail will be possible on an isolated basis, and severe-caliber wind gusts would be an increasing concern as storms potentially form into a well-organized southeastward-moving line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Alliance NE to 20 miles east southeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 620... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Preceding low-level moisture return is expected to result in upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley on D4/Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low-level moisture and instability will be displaced south of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, but enough overlap will likely still exist to support severe thunderstorms. However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit storm coverage and medium-range guidance differs on the most favorable location for convective initiation. As such, uncertainty is too high to warrant a threat delineation with this outlook. The cold front is expected to continue slowly southward across the central Plains on D5/Friday, with thunderstorms expected again along the boundary. Afternoon/evening storm coverage may be higher than on D4/Thursday but uncertainties regarding severity and location still preclude outlooking any areas. Low-level moisture will likely continue to advect northward on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US and mid-level westerly flow shifts north. Environment as currently progged supports potential severe, but run-to-run variability of the guidance and general forecast uncertainty at this range limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Preceding low-level moisture return is expected to result in upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley on D4/Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low-level moisture and instability will be displaced south of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, but enough overlap will likely still exist to support severe thunderstorms. However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit storm coverage and medium-range guidance differs on the most favorable location for convective initiation. As such, uncertainty is too high to warrant a threat delineation with this outlook. The cold front is expected to continue slowly southward across the central Plains on D5/Friday, with thunderstorms expected again along the boundary. Afternoon/evening storm coverage may be higher than on D4/Thursday but uncertainties regarding severity and location still preclude outlooking any areas. Low-level moisture will likely continue to advect northward on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US and mid-level westerly flow shifts north. Environment as currently progged supports potential severe, but run-to-run variability of the guidance and general forecast uncertainty at this range limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Preceding low-level moisture return is expected to result in upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley on D4/Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low-level moisture and instability will be displaced south of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, but enough overlap will likely still exist to support severe thunderstorms. However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit storm coverage and medium-range guidance differs on the most favorable location for convective initiation. As such, uncertainty is too high to warrant a threat delineation with this outlook. The cold front is expected to continue slowly southward across the central Plains on D5/Friday, with thunderstorms expected again along the boundary. Afternoon/evening storm coverage may be higher than on D4/Thursday but uncertainties regarding severity and location still preclude outlooking any areas. Low-level moisture will likely continue to advect northward on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US and mid-level westerly flow shifts north. Environment as currently progged supports potential severe, but run-to-run variability of the guidance and general forecast uncertainty at this range limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Preceding low-level moisture return is expected to result in upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley on D4/Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low-level moisture and instability will be displaced south of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, but enough overlap will likely still exist to support severe thunderstorms. However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit storm coverage and medium-range guidance differs on the most favorable location for convective initiation. As such, uncertainty is too high to warrant a threat delineation with this outlook. The cold front is expected to continue slowly southward across the central Plains on D5/Friday, with thunderstorms expected again along the boundary. Afternoon/evening storm coverage may be higher than on D4/Thursday but uncertainties regarding severity and location still preclude outlooking any areas. Low-level moisture will likely continue to advect northward on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US and mid-level westerly flow shifts north. Environment as currently progged supports potential severe, but run-to-run variability of the guidance and general forecast uncertainty at this range limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Preceding low-level moisture return is expected to result in upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley on D4/Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low-level moisture and instability will be displaced south of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, but enough overlap will likely still exist to support severe thunderstorms. However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit storm coverage and medium-range guidance differs on the most favorable location for convective initiation. As such, uncertainty is too high to warrant a threat delineation with this outlook. The cold front is expected to continue slowly southward across the central Plains on D5/Friday, with thunderstorms expected again along the boundary. Afternoon/evening storm coverage may be higher than on D4/Thursday but uncertainties regarding severity and location still preclude outlooking any areas. Low-level moisture will likely continue to advect northward on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US and mid-level westerly flow shifts north. Environment as currently progged supports potential severe, but run-to-run variability of the guidance and general forecast uncertainty at this range limits predictability. Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LBF TO 30 SE MHN TO 35 E MHN TO 20 NW MHN TO 35 NNW MHN TO 20 NE VTN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863 ..GLEASON..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-041-071-089-103-113-115-149-171-183-260940- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CUSTER GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1863 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621... Valid 260835Z - 261000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong/gusty winds continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621. DISCUSSION...A belt of 50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow remains across northern/central NE early this morning. Warm air advection and lift associated with a 30-35 southerly low-level jet has encouraged additional storms across this region over the past 1-2 hours. These storms may remain slightly elevated above an outflow-reinforced near-surface stable layer depicted in RAP forecast soundings and surface observations. Still, the presence of weak to moderate MUCAPE coupled with strong effective bulk shear will support organized updrafts. A supercell has recently strengthened across central NE along a weak baroclinic zone in the wake of an earlier cluster which has since weakened in eastern NE. Isolated large hail may occur in the short term with this storm. Otherwise, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may also occur with another cluster that has developed over Cherry County NE. Regardless, the overall threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621 is expected to remain rather isolated for the next couple of hours. Storms should continue to weaken with eastward extent in NE as they encounter an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41209866 41059921 41860041 42240152 42500148 42930119 42949850 42869833 41739832 41209866 Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LBF TO 30 SE MHN TO 35 E MHN TO 45 WNW MHN TO 55 WNW VTN. ..GLEASON..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-041-071-089-103-113-115-149-171-183-260840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CUSTER GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, reaching the Northeast by early Thursday morning. Farther west, upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest is expected to gradually shift eastward while losing amplitude. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Plains between the eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The surface pattern early Wednesday morning will likely feature a cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Lower MS Valley then westward into west Texas. Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the eastern seaboard by early Thursday morning. Southern/western portion of the front across TX will move little, becoming increasingly diffuse throughout the day as moisture return strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front as well as within the diurnally destabilized air mass beneath the upper ridging over the Southwest. Given the relatively weak vertical shear in areas where instability exists, the environment does not support severe thunderstorms across CONUS. ..Mosier.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, reaching the Northeast by early Thursday morning. Farther west, upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest is expected to gradually shift eastward while losing amplitude. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Plains between the eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The surface pattern early Wednesday morning will likely feature a cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Lower MS Valley then westward into west Texas. Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the eastern seaboard by early Thursday morning. Southern/western portion of the front across TX will move little, becoming increasingly diffuse throughout the day as moisture return strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front as well as within the diurnally destabilized air mass beneath the upper ridging over the Southwest. Given the relatively weak vertical shear in areas where instability exists, the environment does not support severe thunderstorms across CONUS. ..Mosier.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, reaching the Northeast by early Thursday morning. Farther west, upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest is expected to gradually shift eastward while losing amplitude. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Plains between the eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The surface pattern early Wednesday morning will likely feature a cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Lower MS Valley then westward into west Texas. Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the eastern seaboard by early Thursday morning. Southern/western portion of the front across TX will move little, becoming increasingly diffuse throughout the day as moisture return strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front as well as within the diurnally destabilized air mass beneath the upper ridging over the Southwest. Given the relatively weak vertical shear in areas where instability exists, the environment does not support severe thunderstorms across CONUS. ..Mosier.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, reaching the Northeast by early Thursday morning. Farther west, upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest is expected to gradually shift eastward while losing amplitude. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Plains between the eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The surface pattern early Wednesday morning will likely feature a cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Lower MS Valley then westward into west Texas. Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the eastern seaboard by early Thursday morning. Southern/western portion of the front across TX will move little, becoming increasingly diffuse throughout the day as moisture return strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front as well as within the diurnally destabilized air mass beneath the upper ridging over the Southwest. Given the relatively weak vertical shear in areas where instability exists, the environment does not support severe thunderstorms across CONUS. ..Mosier.. 08/26/2019 Read more

MD 1862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1862 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern MO into west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260706Z - 260900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado will remain possible in the near term. Watch issuance is not expected at this time as the overall threat appears very isolated. DISCUSSION...A small line of storms has recently strengthened across east-central MO in association with a remnant MCV from prior convection located over far west-central IL at 07Z. The VWP from KLSX does show a gradually veering wind profile in the 0-3 km AGL layer. Two weak circulations have been observed so far embedded within the line. The presence of around 125-200 m2/s2 of effective bulk shear suggests that transient circulations capable of producing a brief/weak tornado may continue for the next couple of hours. However, both modest instability and weak effective bulk shear will likely tend to limit a more organized severe threat across this region through the early morning hours. Therefore, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38369214 38909139 39429094 39739071 39789040 39639014 39279011 39029017 38559041 38309109 38319166 38369214 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more