Severe Storms

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0617 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242250Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated storms moving into far northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle should further intensify while other storms develop through the evening. Large hail should be the primary risk, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly during the early/mid-evening hours as a low-level jet increases across the region. Damaging wind potential could also increase if an organized cluster evolves as storms progress southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Clayton NM to 85 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242248Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot with more development possible later this evening. A few storms may produce isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated given the marginal and spatially limited threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot within a weak confluence zone ahead of a cold front that will move into the region later this evening/overnight. The strongest mid-level flow sits much farther to the west, keeping deep-layer shear relatively modest -- effectively 25-30 kts. The current activity will likely intensify as it moves into greater buoyancy, near 1500 J/kg, to the east. More thunderstorm development may occur later this evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches the area. Isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Overall coverage of severe activity should remain low. A WW is not anticipated this evening. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48410310 48970244 48970116 47820109 46610161 46090187 45950282 46080320 46490343 48410310 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 616 TORNADO CO KS NE 242225Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Western and central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase initially across southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and also southwest Kansas through early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The possibility of a couple of tornadoes will also increase through the early/mid-evening hours, particularly across a broad part of western toward north-central Kansas. Damaging winds will also be an increasing concern later this evening as an organized thunderstorm cluster likely evolves and spreads southeastward across northwest/central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Burlington CO to 30 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 24 22:04:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242201Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms developing over the far southeast Colorado vicinity may pose a local hail wind risk, with some upscale growth possible with time as the convection spreads southeastward toward lower elevations. A WW could become necessary. DISCUSSION...Latest visible and radar loops over the central/southern high Plains show isolated storms developing over far southeast Colorado at this time, within an environment featuring moderate instability and an amply veering/sheared profile with height. One of the cells, over southeast Baca County Colorado, appears to have acquired rotation per radar reflectivity/SRM data, consistent with the background environment. With time, expect the developing storms spread southeastward across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, possibly expanding/growing upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS. With initial cells somewhat high-based, and surface dewpoint depressions in excess of 20F in most areas, tornado risk should remain limited. Large hail will be a greater risk with the initial supercell mode, with wind becoming an increasing possibility with time if storms can indeed achieve at least loose linear/bowing organization. We will continue to monitor degree of convective coverage that evolves, with an eye toward possible WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38080286 37760234 37260159 37000050 36129972 35180021 35140208 36480368 37320304 38080286 Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...portions of southwest and south-central Nebraska...central and northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242055Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in intensity after 4 to 5 pm CDT with large hail and damaging winds likely, and a tornado or two possible. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 6 pm CDT/23Z. DISCUSSION...A gradually-deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite imagery across western portions of the KS/NE border at 2045Z. This area is on the southern periphery of a mid-level convectively-enhanced vortex, and in advance of a compact upstream impulse over northeast CO/NE Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and with additional diurnal heating some further increase in surface-based instability is likely. Mid-level northwesterly flow should increase slightly through this evening, resulting in effective shear averaging 35-45 kts. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern/western portions of the discussion area over the next few hours in the presence of negligible CINH and weakly confluent low-level flow. Initial mode will include supercells, with large hail, possibly significant, and damaging winds the primary threats. Notable low-level veering/curved hodographs in RAP forecast soundings, primarily across the KS portion of the discussion area, suggests some potential for low-level rotation and perhaps one or two tornadoes with more discrete storms in the first couple of hours after initiation. With time, upscale growth is anticipated as a cold pool organizes and the convective complex moves southeast this evening aided by modestly increasing low-level warm advection. Damaging winds should become the dominant threat, with large hail remaining possible with the strongest updrafts. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 23Z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40270164 40610078 40710029 40679983 40339925 39989870 39369837 38839833 38379842 37779894 37690023 38740226 39140235 39740226 40270164 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 24 19:01:02 UTC 2019.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more