Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more