Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Another in a series of upper troughs will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Strong mid-level flow accompanying this upper trough will overspread this region through the day, along with cooling mid-level temperatures. As this occurs, modest instability should develop along/near the WA/OR Coast into parts of northwestern CA. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that develops across these areas as a surface front progresses eastward. Additional isolated thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon across parts of interior WA/OR into ID as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads over these areas. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to preclude a threat for severe convection. Across south FL, isolated thunderstorms appear possible through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves slowly eastward over the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the updraft strength with any convection that develops. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more