Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes are needed to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...Minnesota to Iowa... Elevated fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across parts of Minnesota into northern Iowa. Early-morning satellite and surface observations continue to show a stacked upper and surface low over the lower Great Lakes region. This system will continue to gradually shift east today, but will maintain breezy northerly gradient winds across the upper MS Valley. Previous 24-hour observations across MN show a slight drying trend with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 20s. Recent model solutions have had a slight moist-bias during this period, and continue the slow drying trend into this afternoon. Consequently, afternoon RH values will likely fall below yesterday's observed RH minimums. Gradient winds between 15-25 mph are expected with frequent gusts up to 35 mph. Little rainfall over the past week, coupled with curing from hot, dry, windy conditions yesterday, has allowed ERCs to approach the 90th percentile for some locations. Refinements to the risk area have been made across IA to reflect where local fuel reports indicate spring green up has sufficiently mitigated fuel receptiveness. ...Southeast NM into southwest TX... 00 UTC soundings from MAF and EPZ show steep mid-level lapse rates with dry, well-mixed boundary layers and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This thermodynamic profile is expected to largely remain in place through the afternoon as ascent associated with an sub-tropical shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over the region where ERC values are in excess of the 80th percentile. Additional thunderstorms are expected in the periphery of the risk area, but latest ensemble guidance suggests the probability of wetting rainfall is higher. ...Georgia into South Carolina... Westerly gradient winds on the southern periphery of the Great Lakes low are forecast to be sustained around 15 mph (gusting to 20-30 mph) from GA eastward to the Carolina coast. A dry continental air mass moving into the region, coupled with diurnal warming, will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5 inch over the past 48-72 hours cast uncertainty onto the coverage of receptive fuels. As such, the fire concern will primarily be focused on local areas where dead grasses and other fine fuels have sufficiently dried over the past 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 05/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Elevated region across southwest MN and portions of IA within the D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of dry and wet scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico. Gradual moistening is expected through the afternoon, with afternoon relative humidity approaching 30-40 percent. This, in combination with slower storm motions around 15 mph, will allow for measurable precipitation chances to increase through the afternoon. Relative humidity around 20 percent will be most likely across southeastern New Mexico in the early afternoon as thunderstorms develop with very dry sub-cloud conditions. A period of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible within this region. ERCs in this region are approaching the 90th percentile. As such, this region has been included in isolated dry thunder. ..Thornton.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across southwest MN into parts of IA. North/northwesterly gradient winds are expected to linger across the region into Tuesday, and the persistent northerly flow will usher in a dry air mass from the Canadian Prairies. Ensemble and deterministic guidance shows a reasonable signal for 15-25% RH across this region with sustained winds between 15-20 mph. Although the axis of stronger mid-level winds will shift east through the day, gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Fine grasses across the region are expected to undergo curing today (Monday) given the warm, dry, and windy forecast, which should support the fire weather concern on Tuesday. Across the Southwest and Great Basin, another day of breezy southerly winds is expected, but an influx of moisture from the Gulf of California should limit RH reductions compared to today/Monday. Consequently, only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated, mainly across southern AZ to southwest NM where fuels are driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts may affect parts of a corridor from northwestern Nevada to eastern Oregon, late this afternoon into evening. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Northwest NV into eastern OR this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern CA will pivot northward over northwest NV/southern OR, around the eastern periphery of a deepening midlevel low just off the OR/northern CA coasts. Low-level moisture is limited across the Great Basin with dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s F. However, surface heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates/inverted-v profiles with weak buoyancy, which will favor high-based storms in a loose arc later this afternoon. Some storm-scale organization will be possible in an environment of deep-layer, south-southeasterly shear, and the strongest storms may produce strong/isolated severe outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from northwest NV into eastern OR. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon across parts of NY/PA where modest surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, beneath cold midlevel temperatures. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with weak diurnal convection across parts of the central/northern Rockies, in the vicinity of a mean northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over the Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon through the mid evening. ...Synopsis... An omega block pattern will characterize the flow regime over the Lower 48 states on Tuesday. Two nearly stationary mid-level lows will be located near San Francisco Bay and the Lower Great Lakes. A mid-level ridge will extend from the southern High Plains north-northwestward through the northern Rockies. Surface high pressure will reside over the mid MO Valley with a narrow moisture plume protruding from the lower Rio Grande Valley northwestward into the southern High Plains. The early stage of northwestward moisture return will be ongoing Tuesday across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau/Big Bend. The development of a weak lee trough/dryline will focus the northwest periphery of marginal moisture into the Permian Basin by late afternoon. Very strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a well-mixed boundary layer and SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Low-level southeasterlies veering and strengthening to 20-kt westerly 500-mb flow, will result in around 25-30 effective shear. Model guidance indicates at least widely scattered thunderstorms developing by early evening. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger downdrafts as this activity aggregates into one or two small clusters during the evening before dissipating. ..Smith.. 05/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlooks. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across southern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. Steady pressure falls over the past 24 hours are noted across parts of the Great Basin where early-morning surface observations depict a broad cyclone. The approach of an upper shortwave trough off the CA coast will support broad-scale ascent over the Great Basin, further deepening the surface low over the next 12 hours. In response, southerly low-level winds are expected to increase from northern Mexico into the Southwest and Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show high probability of widespread 15-25 mph sustained winds across this region, and deep boundary-layer mixing will support gusts between 25-40 mph - especially over western AZ where mid-level winds are forecast to be stronger. An antecedent dry air mass is noted across the Southwest, which will allow for another day of 10-20% RH. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable for much of the region, but the fire weather concern will primarily reside from southwest NM to southern AZ where ERCs are generally at the 75th percentile or higher after a period of unseasonably warm temperatures and little rainfall over the past 30 days. Sustained critical conditions appear most probable across parts of southwest AZ, but confidence in the spatial coverage remains too limited for additional highlights. ...Minnesota to northern MO... Strong north/northwesterly gradient winds are expected across a broad swath of the eastern Plains/Midwest this afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph will likely coincide with areas of 25-35% RH to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Latest fuel guidance and drought indices suggest fuels are generally unreceptive, but localized fire weather concerns are possible where fuels are sufficiently dry. ...Dry Thunderstorms... 00 UTC soundings from BOI, LKN, SLC, and GJT sampled a very dry air mass (PWAT values 0.4-0.5 inches) with cold temperatures aloft. Mid-level moisture, while meager, is adequate to support high-based convection based on recent lightning trends in southwest ID. This air mass is expected to migrate northward into northern ID/western MT as well as WY to northwest CO, and may support a few dry thunderstorms this afternoon. While this potential is noted, fuels across the region remain too unreceptive to warrant a risk highlight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST NV INTO EASTERN OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts may affect parts of a corridor from northwestern Nevada to eastern Oregon, late this afternoon into evening. ...Northwest NV into eastern OR this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern CA will pivot northward over northwest NV/southern OR, around the eastern periphery of a deepening midlevel low just off the OR/northern CA coasts. Low-level moisture is limited across the Great Basin with dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s F. However, surface heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates/inverted-v profiles with weak buoyancy, which will favor high-based storms in a loose arc later this afternoon. Some storm-scale organization will be possible in an environment of deep-layer, south-southeasterly shear, and the strongest storms may produce strong/isolated severe outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from northwest NV into eastern OR. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon across parts of NY/PA where modest surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, beneath cold midlevel temperatures. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with weak diurnal convection across parts of the central/northern Rockies, in the vicinity of a mean northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 05/01/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 30 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 30 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from eastern North Carolina to southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The only change this forecast update is to remove severe probabilities in wake of the squall line over eastern NC. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Prior to frontal passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing rain/clouds across eastern NC. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon. These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail, given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from eastern North Carolina to southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The only change this forecast update is to remove severe probabilities in wake of the squall line over eastern NC. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Prior to frontal passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing rain/clouds across eastern NC. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon. These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail, given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... As ridging builds over the Rockies and Great Basin with the aforementioned omega block, stronger southwesterly flow aloft will begin to develop across portions of the Southwest on the fringes of an upper low off the West Coast. A deepening surface low over the Great Basin will enhance southerly winds across portions of southern AZ and NM. Here, warm and dry surface conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values below 15% possible. With wind speeds of 15-20 mph overlapping low humidity and somewhat receptive fuels, a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely Monday. The best overlap of drying fuels and windy/dry conditions will be possible across southern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico, where ERCs are approaching the 75th percentile with poor overnight recoveries expected. While favorable meteorological conditions will likely extended farther north, fuel conditions remain too prohibitive for highlights, given the early season. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... As ridging builds over the Rockies and Great Basin with the aforementioned omega block, stronger southwesterly flow aloft will begin to develop across portions of the Southwest on the fringes of an upper low off the West Coast. A deepening surface low over the Great Basin will enhance southerly winds across portions of southern AZ and NM. Here, warm and dry surface conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values below 15% possible. With wind speeds of 15-20 mph overlapping low humidity and somewhat receptive fuels, a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely Monday. The best overlap of drying fuels and windy/dry conditions will be possible across southern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico, where ERCs are approaching the 75th percentile with poor overnight recoveries expected. While favorable meteorological conditions will likely extended farther north, fuel conditions remain too prohibitive for highlights, given the early season. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern is forecast to evolve into an omega block as a mid-level low remains nearly stationary over the Great Lakes while a mid-level low migrates southward from near the Vancouver/WA coast to San Francisco Bay by early Tuesday morning. In between these two features, a mid-level ridge will reside over the Rockies/High Plains. In the low levels, surface high pressure will influence conditions across much of the Gulf Coast north-northwestward into the Upper Midwest. Low-topped convection in the form of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible near the mid-level cold core over Upstate NY. Isolated thunderstorms are also likely to develop across the central Rockies and from eastern WA/ID southward through OR into northwest NV. Small hail perhaps could develop where buoyancy is greatest during the afternoon in western ID and near the Sangre de Cristos, but storm intensity is not expected to reach severe limits. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern is forecast to evolve into an omega block as a mid-level low remains nearly stationary over the Great Lakes while a mid-level low migrates southward from near the Vancouver/WA coast to San Francisco Bay by early Tuesday morning. In between these two features, a mid-level ridge will reside over the Rockies/High Plains. In the low levels, surface high pressure will influence conditions across much of the Gulf Coast north-northwestward into the Upper Midwest. Low-topped convection in the form of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible near the mid-level cold core over Upstate NY. Isolated thunderstorms are also likely to develop across the central Rockies and from eastern WA/ID southward through OR into northwest NV. Small hail perhaps could develop where buoyancy is greatest during the afternoon in western ID and near the Sangre de Cristos, but storm intensity is not expected to reach severe limits. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... An omega block with a broad mid-level cyclone will dominate the flow pattern for the eastern half of the country through the forecast period. Northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains supporting dry and breezy conditions. Meanwhile, ridging and weaker winds are expected over portions of the Southwest and Rockies, while a cold front moves south. ...Central Plains... In the wake of a cold front moving south across the Plains, dry northwesterly flow is expected over portions of southern NE and northern KS. Surface winds gusting to near 20 mph will overlap with afternoon RH values of 20-25% for a few hours during peak heating. Occurring in a relative minimum of recent precipitation, area fuels are somewhat conducive to fire spread. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the afternoon. ...West TX and eastern NM... Ahead of the surface cold front, westerly downslope winds are expected through the day across portions of eastern NM and west TX. While not overly strong, occasional gusts near 15-20 mph will likely overlap with surface humidity values below 20%. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within the dry fuels. However, confidence in spatial coverage is low owing to the modest surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... An omega block with a broad mid-level cyclone will dominate the flow pattern for the eastern half of the country through the forecast period. Northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains supporting dry and breezy conditions. Meanwhile, ridging and weaker winds are expected over portions of the Southwest and Rockies, while a cold front moves south. ...Central Plains... In the wake of a cold front moving south across the Plains, dry northwesterly flow is expected over portions of southern NE and northern KS. Surface winds gusting to near 20 mph will overlap with afternoon RH values of 20-25% for a few hours during peak heating. Occurring in a relative minimum of recent precipitation, area fuels are somewhat conducive to fire spread. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the afternoon. ...West TX and eastern NM... Ahead of the surface cold front, westerly downslope winds are expected through the day across portions of eastern NM and west TX. While not overly strong, occasional gusts near 15-20 mph will likely overlap with surface humidity values below 20%. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within the dry fuels. However, confidence in spatial coverage is low owing to the modest surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST SC ACROSS EASTERN NC TO SOUTHEAST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from northeast South Carolina to southeast Virginia. ...Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Prior to frontal passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing rain/clouds across eastern NC. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon. These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail, given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/30/2023 Read more