Severe Storms

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..04/22/23 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-049-053-081-083-093-095-099-171-193-235-267-281-299-307- 319-327-333-353-399-411-413-431-435-451-222140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO BROWN BURNET COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON IRION KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 162 SEVERE TSTM TX 221940Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop rapidly this afternoon in vicinity of a surface boundary over central Texas, and drift slowly east-southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds are expected. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of San Angelo TX to 85 miles southeast of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...WW 161... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BWI TO 30 WSW AVP. ..MOORE..04/22/23 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC005-007-011-015-019-021-033-035-041-222140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER SALEM SOMERSET WARREN PAC011-017-025-029-045-071-075-077-089-091-095-101-107-222140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..04/22/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-061-079-103-107-117-129-133-137-141- 147-155-187-222140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN GREENE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON WASHINGTON SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-222140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION MARLBORO WILLIAMSBURG AMZ136-137-158-250-252-254-256-222140- Read more

WW 160 SEVERE TSTM NJ PA 221905Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Fast moving thunderstorms over Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania will track across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Allentown PA to 10 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 221920Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along/ahead of a cold front approaching the watch area. A few of these storms will become severe, capable of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Florence SC to 35 miles east northeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW SOP TO 30 ENE DAN TO 30 SE RIC TO 5 S NHK TO 35 WNW ILG. ..MOORE..04/22/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-222140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-015-019-029-035-039-041-045-047-222140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL DORCHESTER KENT QUEEN ANNE'S SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC015-029-037-041-051-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-085-091-093- 101-105-125-127-131-135-139-143-145-163-181-183-185-191-195- 222140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 159 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC VA CW 221410Z - 222200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Central and Northeast North Carolina Central and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1010 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over western Virginia/North Carolina will track rapidly eastward today across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible along the leading edge of the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Baltimore MD to 30 miles east of Southern Pines NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon over parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region, and this afternoon and evening over portions of south Texas. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Across the Mid-Atlantic region, probabilities were remove behind earlier convection. For the Texas Hill Country, The Slight/Marginal areas were adjusted based on observations. ..Wendt.. 04/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023/ ...Mid-Atlantic Region... The current water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough becoming negatively tilted over the Ohio Valley, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet nosing into VA. A persistent line of thunderstorms is tracking eastward into central VA/NC, and is expected to intensify soon. Thermodynamics ahead of the storms are rather weak, with limited lapse rates and MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. However, given the strength of the winds aloft and approaching upper forcing, the potential for damaging wind gusts along the line is expected to increase. These storms will track across eastern MD/DE before moving offshore by late afternoon. ...Carolinas... The primary cold front extends across western SC. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front over SC and parts of southern NC, where afternoon MLCAPE will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. Present indications are that storms will intensify in this area by mid-afternoon, with a combination of multicell and supercell structures possible. Winds aloft are slightly weaker here than farther north, but still sufficient for a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in the stronger storms through the early evening. ...Hill Country of Texas... Latest surface analysis shows a weak low to the northwest of San Angelo, with a dryline extending southward to the Mexican border. Strong heating through the day will lead to a weak cap and 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon. Isolated supercell storms are expected to form near the low and track slowly southeastward into the warm sector. Forecast soundings show moderately steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear for the risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two are possible, but limited low-level shear is expected to lessen that threat. Read more

MD 0597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR RIO GRANDE VICINITY SOUTH OF DEL RIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Areas affected...Rio Grande vicinity south of Del Rio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221936Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells may form along the higher terrain to the west of the Rio Grande River by 4-6 PM CDT, and generally remain west of the river into this evening. DISCUSSION...Initial attempts at deepening convective development appear underway near the Serrianas Del Burro, aided by destabilization associated with daytime heating and orographic forcing for ascent. This is where moist southeasterly near surface flow (including mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) appears to be contributing to sizable mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. It is possible that forcing for ascent may become enhanced by a westerly mid-level speed maximum (around 40 kt near 500 mb), with 20-25+ kt westerly deep-layer mean flow contributing to potential for advection of developing storms off the higher terrain toward the Rio Grande River vicinity. However, with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells, and southeasterly low-level upslope flow being maintained into this evening, stronger storms seem likely to tend to propagate south-southeastward closer to the higher terrain, and remain west of the river. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX... LAT...LON 29030202 29520165 29360096 28530037 27740078 27710128 28400179 29030202 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially scattered thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging gusts Sunday over parts of South Texas. ...Synopsis... With relatively zonal flow aloft across the southern U.S., modestly strong westerlies will remain across the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, west-east cold front will be situated from the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country and East Texas. This boundary is expected to shift southward during the day. The potential for severe weather will focus along and south of this boundary. ...South Texas... There is some uncertainty with regard to how convection will evolve on Sunday, with some aspects tied to what occurs Saturday night. Some guidance suggests a weak perturbation may initiate convection Saturday night within the Edwards Plateau vicinity and propagate it along and south of the front. While not in a diurnally favorable time frame, some potential for wind gusts would exist early Sunday should convection be sustained. Given the weak forcing, however, a more probable scenario would be for convection to initiate along the southward moving front and/or the Gulf breeze front. Upper 60s F dewpoints will support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 35-40 kts will support some storm organization as well. Initial storms would be capable large hail and damaging winds. Depending on storm coverage and cold pool organization, a zone of greater wind damage potential could develop should a small MCS develop. ..Wendt.. 04/22/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry, yet cool surface air will remain in place across much of the CONUS tomorrow/Sunday as a surface high lingers east of the Rockies amid a slowly departing upper trough along the East Coast. Similar to today, dry conditions will prevail across the central High Plains, overlapping with occasionally breezy conditions amid dry fuels, promoting localized wildfire-spread potential. However, Elevated conditions are likely near the international border in the Lower Colorado River Basin, as 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlap with 15 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights were added since fuels should be marginally receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 21 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD TO 60 SE CRP. ..MOORE..04/21/23 ATTN...WFO...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC061-215-261-427-489-212240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON HIDALGO KENEDY STARR WILLACY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 158 SEVERE TSTM TX 211935Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Deep South Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to intensify across Deep South Texas this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Mcallen TX to Mcallen TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley region and upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. Very large hail is possible over Deep South Texas. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 04/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023/ ...South TX... Strong heating is occurring today over south TX, where dewpoints are in the 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values are forecast to exceed 3500 J/kg. Most CAM guidance shows scattered supercell storms developing across this region by late afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear, supportive of very large hail potential. Low-level winds are forecast to be rather weak, suggesting the tornado threat is not particularly high. ...ArkLaMiss Region... A decaying MCS is moving southeastward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Clouds associated with this feature are dissipating over much of east TX/AR/LA, allowing partial afternoon heating/destabilization. Dewpoints remain in the mid 60s, which should result in pockets of afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form as a weak cold front sags into this region. While the overall setup in this region is not very robust, a few of the stronger cells could occasionally pose a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts through the early evening. ...Upper OH Valley... A surface cold front is tracking eastward across western OH. Thinning clouds ahead of the front will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and marginal surface-based CAPE by mid-afternoon. Strong winds aloft and forcing along/ahead of the front will result in rather fast-moving showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty winds. Present indications are that limited low-level moisture will result in isolated coverage of stronger cells, so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk and re-consider an upgrade at 20z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley region and upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. Very large hail is possible over Deep South Texas. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 04/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023/ ...South TX... Strong heating is occurring today over south TX, where dewpoints are in the 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values are forecast to exceed 3500 J/kg. Most CAM guidance shows scattered supercell storms developing across this region by late afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear, supportive of very large hail potential. Low-level winds are forecast to be rather weak, suggesting the tornado threat is not particularly high. ...ArkLaMiss Region... A decaying MCS is moving southeastward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Clouds associated with this feature are dissipating over much of east TX/AR/LA, allowing partial afternoon heating/destabilization. Dewpoints remain in the mid 60s, which should result in pockets of afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form as a weak cold front sags into this region. While the overall setup in this region is not very robust, a few of the stronger cells could occasionally pose a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts through the early evening. ...Upper OH Valley... A surface cold front is tracking eastward across western OH. Thinning clouds ahead of the front will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and marginal surface-based CAPE by mid-afternoon. Strong winds aloft and forcing along/ahead of the front will result in rather fast-moving showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty winds. Present indications are that limited low-level moisture will result in isolated coverage of stronger cells, so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk and re-consider an upgrade at 20z. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic states Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough will swing northeastward across the OH Valley and across the Appalachians during the day, with strong height falls into the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon or early evening. To the west, moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains with an upper ridge over the West. In the low levels, a surface low near Lake Erie Saturday morning will occlude as it moves northward into Ontario and southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east across the Carolinas, VA and PA during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, 50s F dewpoints will be common into PA and NJ, with 60+ dewpoints from southeast VA southward. Aiding moisture advection will be a 40+ kt low-level jet at 850 mb, which will also increase low-level shear. Elsewhere, moisture return will occur from Deep South TX up the Rio Grande Valley, reaching parts of central TX late as an east-west oriented cold front makes southward progress through the period. ...Carolinas/Mid Atlantic... A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the upper OH Valley extending southward into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Cloud breaks ahead of this precipitation will lead to a destabilizing airmass through early afternoon. Model guidance generally shows around 500 J/kg MLCAPE over VA to 1000-1500 J/kg farther south over the Carolinas. Effective shear supporting organized storms will promote organized multicells and perhaps a couple of transient/weaker supercells. The primary change from the previous outlook was to reduce severe probabilities over parts of GA/southern SC where the stronger forcing for ascent will become increasingly displaced from the region, and lower storm coverage is expected as a result. A few isolated strong to localized severe storms are possible over FL coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. The thunderstorm activity will likely weaken by early evening across FL and the severe risk will diminish as storms push east of the coast into the western Atlantic for areas farther north. ...Parts of central Texas... Little in the way of large-scale lift will exist over the area for much of the day as instability builds with heating and moisture advection. A plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast ahead of the front, and isolated storms will be possible after 00Z in the uncapped air mass and near the cold front. Long hodographs will favor hail in the stronger cells, and locally strong gusts. ..Smith.. 04/21/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic states Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough will swing northeastward across the OH Valley and across the Appalachians during the day, with strong height falls into the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon or early evening. To the west, moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains with an upper ridge over the West. In the low levels, a surface low near Lake Erie Saturday morning will occlude as it moves northward into Ontario and southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east across the Carolinas, VA and PA during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, 50s F dewpoints will be common into PA and NJ, with 60+ dewpoints from southeast VA southward. Aiding moisture advection will be a 40+ kt low-level jet at 850 mb, which will also increase low-level shear. Elsewhere, moisture return will occur from Deep South TX up the Rio Grande Valley, reaching parts of central TX late as an east-west oriented cold front makes southward progress through the period. ...Carolinas/Mid Atlantic... A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the upper OH Valley extending southward into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Cloud breaks ahead of this precipitation will lead to a destabilizing airmass through early afternoon. Model guidance generally shows around 500 J/kg MLCAPE over VA to 1000-1500 J/kg farther south over the Carolinas. Effective shear supporting organized storms will promote organized multicells and perhaps a couple of transient/weaker supercells. The primary change from the previous outlook was to reduce severe probabilities over parts of GA/southern SC where the stronger forcing for ascent will become increasingly displaced from the region, and lower storm coverage is expected as a result. A few isolated strong to localized severe storms are possible over FL coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. The thunderstorm activity will likely weaken by early evening across FL and the severe risk will diminish as storms push east of the coast into the western Atlantic for areas farther north. ...Parts of central Texas... Little in the way of large-scale lift will exist over the area for much of the day as instability builds with heating and moisture advection. A plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast ahead of the front, and isolated storms will be possible after 00Z in the uncapped air mass and near the cold front. Long hodographs will favor hail in the stronger cells, and locally strong gusts. ..Smith.. 04/21/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... As high pressure builds into the Plains, a shallow cold pool will develop and move westward into the southern High Plains. This will limit fire weather conditions on Saturday despite some lingering moderate flow aloft as surface mixing is unlikely except for western portions of New Mexico where fuels are less favorable and mid level flow is not as strong. Therefore, no fire weather areas have been included. Some dry and breezy conditions will persist across the Southeast, but vegetation in the region is in full greenup, and fuels are not favorable for large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more