Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to align with current trends. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the Plains on Sunday, but will mainly be focused across portions of NE and KS. Short to medium-range guidance shows a somewhat stagnant upper-level pattern over the next 48 hours, with a persistent surface low lingering over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes region. This will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the Plains with another day of sustained 15-25 mph winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely. An influx of cooler continental air will limit the spatial extent of sub-25% RH reductions, and recent ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for favorable overlap of dry/breezy conditions resides over parts of NE to northern KS. While parts of this region have received recent rainfall, local fuel analyses show ERCs generally in the 60-90th percentile range, which should support the fire weather concern. Forecast adjustments are possible given the potential for drying of fine grasses on D1/Saturday. ...Eastern New Mexico to West Texas... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains. Increasing downslope flow off the southern Rockies will foster warming/drying across eastern NM to west TX. Winds near 15 mph, coupled with 15-20% RH, should allow for areas of elevated conditions. However, the displacement of this region from the stronger mid-level flow to the north casts some uncertainty onto the spatial coverage and duration of elevated conditions. Trends will be monitored, and an additional risk area may be needed considering the fairly dry fuels across parts of the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to align with current trends. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the Plains on Sunday, but will mainly be focused across portions of NE and KS. Short to medium-range guidance shows a somewhat stagnant upper-level pattern over the next 48 hours, with a persistent surface low lingering over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes region. This will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the Plains with another day of sustained 15-25 mph winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely. An influx of cooler continental air will limit the spatial extent of sub-25% RH reductions, and recent ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for favorable overlap of dry/breezy conditions resides over parts of NE to northern KS. While parts of this region have received recent rainfall, local fuel analyses show ERCs generally in the 60-90th percentile range, which should support the fire weather concern. Forecast adjustments are possible given the potential for drying of fine grasses on D1/Saturday. ...Eastern New Mexico to West Texas... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains. Increasing downslope flow off the southern Rockies will foster warming/drying across eastern NM to west TX. Winds near 15 mph, coupled with 15-20% RH, should allow for areas of elevated conditions. However, the displacement of this region from the stronger mid-level flow to the north casts some uncertainty onto the spatial coverage and duration of elevated conditions. Trends will be monitored, and an additional risk area may be needed considering the fairly dry fuels across parts of the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, and also across parts of central and south Florida. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards, though isolated hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic Ocean as a surface low deepens while traversing the Atlantic Seaboard. Before the surface cold front trailing the low moves offshore, adequate low-level moisture advection and veering/strengthening tropospheric winds ahead of the front will foster a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Carolina Piedmont and southern Mid Atlantic and central and southern portions of the FL Peninsula. ...Carolina Piedmont into the southern Mid Atlantic... A surface low is expected to be positioned roughly over NC at the start of the period, with southerly low-level flow advecting at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the Carolinas during the morning hours as an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak impinges on the region, contributing to long, slightly curved hodographs and well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger discrete/semi-discrete supercells or line segments that can materialize around the start of the period. Later in the afternoon, enough insolation and boundary-layer modification behind the first round of convection may support additional storm development ahead of the cold front. While a tornado cannot be ruled out with this second round of storms, damaging gusts may be a relatively greater concern as the northward departure of the surface low will result in straighter hodographs compared to earlier in the day. Some severe threat may continue to spread northward in tandem with the surface low into the Mid Atlantic. However, accompanying buoyancy should be scant and the severe risk is expected to be isolated, with a damaging gust or tornado possible. ...Central and southern FL Peninsula... The severe threat will be confined to roughly the 12-20Z period, before the trailing surface cold front shunts the better quality low-level moisture offshore. From morning to early-afternoon, 70+ F surface dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7 C/km tropospheric lapse rates will contribute to 1500 + J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, modestly curved hodographs (with over 50 kts of effective bulk shear and around 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH). As such, a mix of line segments and semi-discrete supercells may pose a damaging gust/tornado threat before the cold front moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 04/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, and also across parts of central and south Florida. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards, though isolated hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic Ocean as a surface low deepens while traversing the Atlantic Seaboard. Before the surface cold front trailing the low moves offshore, adequate low-level moisture advection and veering/strengthening tropospheric winds ahead of the front will foster a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Carolina Piedmont and southern Mid Atlantic and central and southern portions of the FL Peninsula. ...Carolina Piedmont into the southern Mid Atlantic... A surface low is expected to be positioned roughly over NC at the start of the period, with southerly low-level flow advecting at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the Carolinas during the morning hours as an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak impinges on the region, contributing to long, slightly curved hodographs and well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger discrete/semi-discrete supercells or line segments that can materialize around the start of the period. Later in the afternoon, enough insolation and boundary-layer modification behind the first round of convection may support additional storm development ahead of the cold front. While a tornado cannot be ruled out with this second round of storms, damaging gusts may be a relatively greater concern as the northward departure of the surface low will result in straighter hodographs compared to earlier in the day. Some severe threat may continue to spread northward in tandem with the surface low into the Mid Atlantic. However, accompanying buoyancy should be scant and the severe risk is expected to be isolated, with a damaging gust or tornado possible. ...Central and southern FL Peninsula... The severe threat will be confined to roughly the 12-20Z period, before the trailing surface cold front shunts the better quality low-level moisture offshore. From morning to early-afternoon, 70+ F surface dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7 C/km tropospheric lapse rates will contribute to 1500 + J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, modestly curved hodographs (with over 50 kts of effective bulk shear and around 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH). As such, a mix of line segments and semi-discrete supercells may pose a damaging gust/tornado threat before the cold front moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 04/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The current D1 Fire Weather outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of the central Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper jet associated with an approaching wave nosing into the northern Plains. Surface pressure falls associated with this feature are already noted across parts of the upper MS Valley region, and a diffuse surface low over the Great Lakes is forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours. This will augment regional pressure-gradient winds across much of the Plains this afternoon. Widespread sustained winds between 15-25 mph are anticipated from the Dakotas southward into KS with gusts up to 35-45 mph probable. Diurnal warming, coupled with an unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoint values near the 10th percentile for late April across central NE), will foster afternoon RH reductions into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions is expected with periodic critical conditions possible. However, fuels remain only somewhat receptive across the region after recent rainfall. The Elevated risk is maintained over areas where fuels should be most receptive and elevated/critical wind/RH conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The current D1 Fire Weather outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of the central Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper jet associated with an approaching wave nosing into the northern Plains. Surface pressure falls associated with this feature are already noted across parts of the upper MS Valley region, and a diffuse surface low over the Great Lakes is forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours. This will augment regional pressure-gradient winds across much of the Plains this afternoon. Widespread sustained winds between 15-25 mph are anticipated from the Dakotas southward into KS with gusts up to 35-45 mph probable. Diurnal warming, coupled with an unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoint values near the 10th percentile for late April across central NE), will foster afternoon RH reductions into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions is expected with periodic critical conditions possible. However, fuels remain only somewhat receptive across the region after recent rainfall. The Elevated risk is maintained over areas where fuels should be most receptive and elevated/critical wind/RH conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS FL AND SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, large hail, and a coup[e of tornadoes, are possible across parts of Florida and southern Georgia this afternoon, and again overnight. ...FL area through tonight... A large cluster of thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico appears to be developing into an MCS, in advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over the northwest Gulf coast. The developing MCS is expected to progress east-northeastward over central/north FL later this afternoon/evening, along and south of a stalled front. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F and surface heating in cloud breaks will result in destabilization sufficient to maintain the MCS and an attendant threat for damaging winds late this afternoon. Aside from the MCS, cyclogenesis appears likely near the Southeast Atlantic coast along the stalled front by tonight, as the Gulf of Mexico shortwave trough begins to phase with a deep low over the Great Lakes. There will be some threat for additional storm development overnight in association with the primary Gulf of Mexico shortwave trough and cold front, in the wake of the afternoon MCS. Wind profiles will strengthen with time tonight with the approach of the shortwave trough and cyclogenesis. However, the main concern overnight will be any reductions in moisture/buoyancy by today's convection. Other storms may form this afternoon along the Atlantic coast sea breeze from southeast into east central FL. MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt (driven by relatively weak low-level flow and stronger flow aloft) will support the potential for organized/supercell storms with the potential to produce isolated large hail and damaging winds. ...Coastal Carolinas late this afternoon into tonight... The surface warm/moist sector will remain near the Atlantic coast this afternoon, and an isolated strong storm may form along the boundary this afternoon in southern NC. By tonight, there will be a gradual increase in vertical shear in response to cyclogenesis, as well as the possibility of a remnant MCV emerging from the Gulf of Mexico MCS. There will be a conditional threat for organized/supercell storms, though the details of thunderstorm coverage/evolution will depend on the future influence of the Gulf of Mexico convection, which is still uncertain this far northeast. ..Thompson/Smith.. 04/29/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 28 21:30:07 UTC 2023.

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JCT TO 55 W TPL. ..LYONS..04/28/23 ATTN...WFO...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-149-163-171-177-187- 209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-491-493-507- 282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LAVACA LEE LLANO MAVERICK MEDINA REAL TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 179 SEVERE TSTM TX 281920Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form and intensify this afternoon along a cold front, and then spread southeastward through this evening. The initial storms could be supercells along the front, and in the separate area near the Rio Grande, with the potential to produce very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or larger. Otherwise, upscale growth into line segments will result in an increasing threat for damaging winds up to 75 mph later this afternoon/evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Austin TX to 60 miles west of Cotulla TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/28/23 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-089-185-313-473-477-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO GRIMES MADISON WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 180 SEVERE TSTM TX 282045Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Consolidating storms along a cold front will surge southeastward through late evening toward the College Station area, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts of 60-75 mph and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of College Station TX to 55 miles south southeast of New Braunfels TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...WW 179... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SEP TO 10 W FTW TO 35 WSW GYI. ..LYONS..04/28/23 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-113-121-139-147-181-231-251-257-349-397-439-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN NAVARRO ROCKWALL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 178 SEVERE TSTM TX 281830Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few severe storms, primarily left-moving supercells, will be possible this afternoon across north Texas. The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Dallas TX to 45 miles south of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TPL TO 35 NW TPL TO 20 E SEP. ..LYONS..04/28/23 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-145-161-217-289-293-309-319-331-395-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE FALLS FREESTONE HILL LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MASON MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 177 TORNADO TX 281815Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected this afternoon across central Texas, and storms will expand in coverage and spread east-southeastward through this evening. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with the initial supercell cluster, while the threat for damaging winds (up to 75 mph) will increase as storms grow into more of a line by late afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Waco TX to 15 miles southwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Destructive hail (some at least as large as baseballs), thunderstorm gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and evening from north Texas southwestward into south-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The northern extent of the Enhanced Risk (across north TX) has been trimmed with this update. Intense convection, including a supercell, has recently developed along/just south of the surface triple point in central TX. Although a left-splitting supercell or two remains possible, it appears that the greater concentration of severe hail/wind will remain generally south of the Metroplex. Very large hail and a tornado remain a possibility with any supercell that can remain at least semi-discrete. The damaging wind threat will increase as convection eventually grows upscale into an MCS later this afternoon and evening, with some potential for isolated significant severe gusts. Otherwise, only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across NC, based on recent surface observations showing a stalled wedge front draped east-west across much of the state. This area may have a somewhat better chance for an organized thunderstorm or two given a favorable combination of instability and deep-layer shear. But, confidence in any more than an isolated severe hail/wind threat remains too low to increase severe probabilities. See Mesoscale Discussion 649 for more information on the short-term threat for isolated wind/hail across the central Appalachians and vicinity, and Mesoscale Discussion 650 for more details regarding the isolated severe threat across NC. ..Gleason.. 04/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/ ...TX this afternoon through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will continue eastward over central TX this afternoon/evening, as an accompanying cold front likewise surges southeastward. Low-level moisture return is underway from south into central and north TX, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range from Waco southward as of 16z. Strong surface heating/mixing is expected along the western fringe of the returning moisture, near a remnant lee trough/dryline across the Edwards Plateau, prior to being overtaken by the cold front later this afternoon/evening. The surface heating, in combination with strengthening forcing for ascent along the cold front (with the approach of the midlevel trough) will support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across central/north TX. The increasing low-level moisture and surface heating, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, will result in large buoyancy in the warm sector this afternoon (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg). Thermodynamic profiles will favor both strong updrafts and strong downdrafts, while wind profiles will become favorable for supercells as hodographs lengthen. There will be a window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes from about 20-22z near the path of the surface wave along the cold front, where the stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature will coincide with the north edge of the richer low-level moisture (a little south to southwest of the DFW area). The initial convection will likely be supercells with the aforementioned tornado potential, as well as very large hail near 3 inches in diameter. Forcing for ascent along the front will support upscale growth into more linear convection by this evening into central/south central TX. Isolated very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with an increase in the potential for damaging outflow gusts (a few of which could reach or exceed 75 mph). The storms will continue southeastward overnight to the middle and lower TX coasts. ...OH Valley to the Southeast this afternoon... The trailing influence of a midlevel trough will move over OH/WV this afternoon, along with weak surface reflections. A few cloud breaks will allow modest surface heating, and destabilization could become sufficient for isolated strong storms with some hail/wind this afternoon. The trailing (southeast) influence of the midlevel trough, and a slow-moving wedge front, could focus a few strong storms this afternoon across NC. Farther south, the remnants of an overnight MCS are moving over central FL. Lingering clouds have slow surface heating in central FL, and the better chances for isolated strong storms with wind/hail will be in the zones of stronger surface heating across southeast FL with the sea breeze, and closer to the FL/GA border. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The current D2 Fire Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the central Plains Saturday afternoon. A deepening low over the upper MS Valley will strengthen the regional pressure gradient over much of the central and northern Plains. Northerly winds between 15 to 25 mph are expected, with gusts as high as 35-40 mph possible. Diurnal warming will allow for RH reductions into the 20-30% range from SD into NE and northern KS. One mitigating factor is fuel status, as recent analyses suggest 10-hour dead-fuel moisture values are generally above 15% after recent rainfall. Consequently, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations where the potential for periods of critical conditions best overlaps with QPE minimums. However, refinements to this risk area are possible as fine fuels respond to dry conditions over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night, with the greatest threat currently expected across much of north/central Florida into southern Georgia. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the primary threats, with some large hail also possible. ...Southeast... An MCS should be well established over the western Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period Saturday morning. Most guidance indicates this bowing complex will maintain its structure and integrity through the day as it moves quickly eastward. By late Saturday afternoon into early evening, the MCS should impact much of the FL Panhandle into the northern/central FL Peninsula. Ahead of the approaching MCS, low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across FL into southern GA, as an upper trough pivots quickly eastward from the southern Plains over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Moderate instability should be in place along/south of an effective marine warm front, with strong deep-layer shear present across much of the warm sector as mid/upper-level winds increase with the approaching upper trough. Damaging winds should be the main threat with the MCS as it moves over north/central FL and southern GA, with a couple of embedded tornadoes also possible. With cool temperatures aloft and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates, large hail may also occur with initially semi-discrete convection that develops along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. There is some potential for a second round of severe thunderstorms, including supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, late Saturday evening and continuing through the night. This threat will be tied to the ejecting upper wave and rapidly strengthening southerly winds associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet. If the airmass behind the MCS can recover quickly enough, then both low-level and deep-layer shear appear quite favorable for supercells along/ahead of a cold front. The main uncertainty is whether sufficient instability will materialize to realize this potential severe threat. Given the possibility for multiple rounds of severe convection, and trends in 12Z guidance, have expanded the Slight Risk across much of north/central FL and more of southern GA to account for both the MCS track and potential evening/overnight supercells. ..Gleason.. 04/28/2023 Read more

MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...east-central Arkansas...far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272050Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may develop near the shortwave trough in Arkansas and ahead of the cold front in Mississippi. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are the primary threats. A watch may be needed should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis shows increasing boundary-layer destabilization from east-central Arkansas into northern Mississippi. As clouds have dissipated through the day, low-levels have recovered to some degree. Visible satellite indicates increasing cumulus across central Mississippi. Closer to the upper-level trough in Arkansas, additional convection has also recently developed. Shear should increase as the upper trough moves east. Effective shear of 45-60 kts will favor organized storms. Long hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures (around -14 to -17 C) suggest large hail potential. Damaging wind gusts may also occur, but low-level lapse rates should keep that threat more isolated. The highest confidence in storm development/persistence will be near the shortwave trough. It is less certain how many storms will form in central/northern Mississippi, but those storms would have more potential for large hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34789268 35169140 35279040 34968938 34368816 33508806 33108832 33018942 33629096 33979206 34109252 34789268 Read more