Severe Storms

WW 196 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 071930Z - 080100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas West Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over western Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. The strongest cells are expected to pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Broken Bow NE to 65 miles south of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713 ..WEINMAN..05/07/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-039-047-049-051-055-057-059-061- 065-069-077-079-081-083-087-101-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129- 133-135-137-143-145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-173-179- 181-185-189-191-193-199-072240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON DE WITT EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GALLATIN GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MASSAC MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PEORIA PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY TAZEWELL UNION Read more

WW 195 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 071820Z - 080200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East Central and Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form along a weak boundary across western Illinois. These storms will expand in coverage through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Springfield IL to 40 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TN...WESTERN NC...FAR NORTHERN GA...AND NORTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...western NC...far northern GA...and northern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072131Z - 072330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows several loosely organized convective clusters tracking south-southeastward along/immediately behind a large-scale outflow boundary draped across eastern TN into western NC. Around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear (per regional VWP) oriented parallel to the outflow boundary will continue supporting some organization of these clusters as they continue southward given marginal surface-based inflow. Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger cores for the next few hours, though a tendency for convection to be undercut by the larger outflow boundary and the eventual loss of daytime heating should generally limit the severe threat. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 35968464 36018397 36078321 36108264 36188210 36228166 36208124 36018076 35618064 35248090 34758291 34878546 35108574 35668582 35898561 35968534 35968464 Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0198 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 198 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 072110Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Far Northeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 410 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms across east-central Illinois as of 4pm CDT is expected to continue to intensify and organize as it moves across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois, while additional storms are expected to develop near a boundary across southern Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazard, although at least some tornado potential may increase this evening, along with a more widespread damaging wind threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Des Moines IA to 45 miles north northeast of Peoria IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW 197... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the central Great Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley from late this afternoon through tonight. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Little change was needed for the 20Z update. The corridor from NE across IA and IL continues to destabilize, beneath moderate mid/high level westerlies and near a surface boundary. The main severe threat will develop later this afternoon and persist through the evening when a southerly low-level jet from KS into MO noses into IA. Otherwise, diurnally driven hail and wind is expected over parts of western and northwestern TX later today, with scattered severe storms producing strong gusts and sporadic hail from southern IL into much of TN through evening. For more information, see the following mesoscale discussions: Nebraska MCD 705 Iowa MCD 710 Texas MCD 709 Illinois/Tennessee MCD 706 MCD 707 MCD 711 ..Jewell.. 05/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023/ Morning water vapor loop shows broad southwesterly winds aloft across much of the central US, with several minor shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. Sufficient low-level moisture and instability is present to lead to multiple areas of concern for afternoon strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Central Plains... A persistent surface boundary extends from northwest KS eastward into southeast NE. Easterly low-level winds to the north of the boundary is maintaining 50s dewpoints and a corridor of moderate CAPE, along with relatively strong westerly flow aloft. A fast-moving shortwave trough currently near the CO/UT border will track eastward into the Plains by late afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorm development near the boundary. These storms will likely become severe and move eastward through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ...IA Vicinity... As the UT/CO shortwave trough ejects into the Plains later today, large scale forcing for ascent will spread eastward into the MO Valley. Strengthening low-level winds and convergence along the boundary will lead to intense thunderstorms by late afternoon, spreading eastward across IA and northern MO. Large CAPE values will promote a risk of very large hail and damaging winds with these storms, along with the likelihood of upscale growth during the evening into one or more bowing structures. This activity will move into central IL by late evening. Meanwhile, the activity farther west of NE will move across the same areas after dark. This scenario of multiple rounds of severe storms leads to the 30% hail/wind probabilities and the ENH risk. ...IL/KY/TN... A large linear MCS is sagging southward across much of KY this morning, with a risk of locally strong-damaging wind gusts throughout the day. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will develop along the western flank of this activity from central IL into western KY/TN. This area is expected to see convective rejuvenation by mid/late afternoon. Forecast soundings show profiles capable of hail and damaging wind gusts, along with a chance of bowing structures during the evening. ...West-Central TX... Relatively clear skies will reside along the dryline across west-central TX and southwest OK today, where a very unstable air mass will develop. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Similar to yesterday, thunderstorms will develop along the dryline by mid-afternoon and spread slowly eastward. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with a few of the storms. ...South TX... Multiple CAM solutions suggest that intense storms over northern Mexico will track across the Rio Grande and into south TX this afternoon and evening. Therefore have extended the SLGT risk for hail and wind into this region. Read more

MD 0712 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT...NORTHEAST WY...AND WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeast MT...northeast WY...and western SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071952Z - 072245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should increase this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus towers along a stationary boundary draped southeastward from southeastern MT into southwestern SD this afternoon -- and isolated lightning flashes are evident in southeastern MT. Continued diurnal heating (and removal of CINH) amid modest upslope flow and orographic ascent will eventually support additional thunderstorm development initially focused along the boundary and terrain features during the next couple of hours. Regional VWP data shows a belt of 25-30-kt midlevel southwesterlies overspreading weak low-level easterlies -- contributing to an elongating (mostly straight) hodograph. Given cold temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and gradually increasing deep-layer shear (eventually 30-40 kt of effective shear), isolated large hail will be possible with the more organized/semi-discrete cores. This activity will generally spread eastward later this afternoon/early evening with some potential for localized upscale growth. While strong gusts will be possible during that time, increasing low-level static stability could limit the overall severe threat. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 43900185 43410202 43180245 43210286 43420322 43620345 43970383 44240424 44500464 44810509 45100558 45470571 45990543 46190507 46230461 46100401 45860327 45680294 45390253 44630199 43900185 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, broad troughing over the central Rockies and western US will weaken and retrograde as weak ridging develops over the southern Rockies and Plains. Flow aloft will weaken substantially, limiting the magnitude of surface winds over much of NM and the southern High Plains. However, warm temperatures and a dry air mass will persist over the region Monday, with humidity values expected well below 15%. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop for a few hours in the afternoon with locally gusty surface winds. Though confidence in the coverage of sustained elevated fire-weather concerns is too low to introduce an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most probable from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and hail. Sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out anywhere from Texas to the Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A low-predictability weather pattern will exist on Monday, with a belt of modest midlevel flow from the central Plains across the OH Valley, and a large area of instability from the southern Plains to the OH and TN Valleys. Of primary focus will be a midlevel wave positioned from IA into northern IL Monday morning. This feature is forecast to move east/southeast across the OH Valley states, providing enhanced wind speeds and deep layer shear. A weak surface low will also track from IL to WV with the associated midlevel wave, and this corridor will be the main focus for potential damaging winds and hail. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, from southern MO into OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass to the south. In addition, a dryline will stretch from northwest TX southward toward the Big Bend. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will affect parts of northern CA and NV into OR and ID, providing cool air aloft, weak instability and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Locally gusty winds or small hail may occur. ...Lower MO/Mid MS/OH Valleys... The initiation of severe potential may be tied to the position of early day storms over the IA/IL/MO area Monday morning. These storms and associated outflow may persist throughout the morning with an increasing severe wind risk as the air mass becomes very unstable. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel flow to produce an MCS producing wind damage. However, if the early morning storms have not produced much outflow, then afternoon development may be cellular initially, producing large hail and perhaps a tornado given effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 ahead of the low. In summary, nearly all modes of severe will be possible from eastern MO into OH and KY, primarily with damaging wind and large hail. While predictability is low, the potential for a concentrated corridor of wind damage could develop, necessitating higher probabilities in later updates. ...AR into OK and parts of western TX... The boundary moving out of MO into AR, extending west into OK, will likely provide a focus for diurnal development, as heating of a moist air mass results in 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Westerly flow aloft at this latitude will be generally weak, but low-level convergence may be enough to initiate scattered clusters of storms along this front from afternoon through evening. Some of the stronger storms will likely produce large hail or locally damaging gusts. Farther south along the dryline into TX, strong heating will totally erode the capping inversion, and at least isolated thunderstorms are expected, producing localized strong gusts or hail. ..Jewell.. 05/07/2023 Read more

WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0190 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 190 TORNADO IA MO 062055Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify over northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa this afternoon and track eastward across the watch area. Supercells capable of very large hail and a tornado or two are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 30 miles south of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0189 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 189 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 062040Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central Oklahoma Central and Northern Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon into this evening. Very large hail to around 3 inches in diameter and damaging gusts to 75 mph will be possible with these storms as they track east/northeast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ardmore OK to 45 miles south southeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Areas affected...mainly northern Missouri into southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 062020Z - 062245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Conditions have become favorable for isolated supercells to develop, with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail through early evening. DISCUSSION...A modifying outflow boundary/warm front now stretches from extreme southeast NE across northwest MO. Substantial TCU is developing near a weak surface low near the NE/KS/MO border area, with additional CU fields in the modifying air mass over southern IA. Stable billow clouds are noted over of northern MO, but continued air mass modification will continue. Indeed, strong boundary-layer mixing exists from eastern KS into western MO where temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to 90s F, with surface gusts out of the south around 25 kt. Convergence near the weak low in combination with warming surface temperatures are expected to result in isolated supercell development between 21-23Z. Hodographs will favor due-east storm motions, while strong instability and 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 favoring both very large hail and a couple tornadoes. ..Jewell.. 05/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41259492 41409248 40999202 40509190 40049197 39469237 39369275 39639432 39719478 39789527 39799563 40129590 40199592 40509575 40899553 41259492 Read more

MD 0689 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Areas affected...portions of central/northern TX into south-central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 062008Z - 062215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development is expected by 21-23z/4-6pm CDT. Very large hail and scattered damaging gusts will be the main hazards associated with these storms through this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...An expanding cumulus field from near San Angelo TX northeast toward Wichita Falls TX is becoming increasingly agitated this afternoon. Strong heating along a dryline has resulted in temperatures from the upper 80s to low 90s. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to low 70s F beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (greater than 8 C/km) are contributing to MLCAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg. 19z objective analysis indicated capping is also rapidly eroding. Thunderstorms are expected to develop close to the dryline by 22z/5 pm CDT. Given strong instability and favorable lapse rates, intensification may occur fairly rapidly. Deep-layer flow is relatively modest, but vertically veering wind profiles with some increase in midlevel southwesterly flow by 23-00z will result in effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt. Very large hail (to around 3 inch diameter) will be possible, especially early in storm evolution. Steep low-level lapse rates also may promote strong downburst winds. Wind potential also may increase with time/eastward extent if some upscale development into forward-propagating clusters/bowing segments occurs, as some some short term hi-res guidance suggests. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 31349948 31379990 31510025 31630048 31880061 32240065 32600044 33849920 34599830 34799790 34859744 34779708 34619683 34389674 34089672 33929676 32839740 32559755 32009798 31469882 31349936 31349948 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE... The elevated area has been expanded eastward into western Oklahoma where warm temperature will contribute to minimum relative humidity values falling into the upper-teens. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within the broad mid-level trough over the central Rockies, a subtle shortwave is expected to exit the Great Basin and pass over portions of the High Plains Sunday. Accompanied by a small increase in flow aloft, the lee low should deepen, aiding in stronger surface winds. With dry and windy surface conditions expected behind a trailing dryline, critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern High Plains... As the subtle shortwave trough passes over the Southwest and southern High Plains Sunday, gusty southwest surface winds are expected to develop over portions of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that sustained winds will reach 20-25 mph with higher gusts Sunday afternoon and evening. The dry downslope flow, hot temperatures, and poor overnight humidity recoveries will support widespread RH values below 15%. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely from eastern NM, into portions of southern CO with the most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions in northeastern parts of NM. Farther east into the western OK/TX Panhandles, fuels are more questionable owing to recent precipitation. However, several days of drying since suggest some potential for near-critical fire-weather conditions given gusty surface winds and low humidity behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorm development remains likely during the late afternoon and evening across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and destructive wind events are possible across the Big Country and North-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms capable or producing a few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging gusts remain a concern across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley States this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... One of the primary changes made to the Day 1 Outlook was to remove the Category 1/Marginal Risk from LA. Multiple training MCSs have overturned the airmass in this region, reducing buoyancy and the associated severe threat. The only other change to the Day 1 Outlook was to adjust the severe probabilities over IA into northwestern MO to align with a baroclinic zone, where a focus for initial discrete supercells exists before storms potentially grow upscale into an MCS later this evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the Outlook remains on track, with severe hail and wind likely with outflow dominant storms across the southern Plains. An instance or two of large hail may still accompany a small convective cluster across central IL (see Mesoscale Discussion 0688 for more details). Likewise, a couple of severe wind gusts remain possible with storms overspreading a relatively dry boundary layer over parts of NE into SD. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023/ ...TX/OK... A broad/flat upper trough is present today over the western states, with a ridge axis across the MS Valley. A diffuse surface dryline is analyzed over west TX, and will mix eastward through the afternoon and provide the focus for intense thunderstorm development later today. Full sunshine will lead to dry-adiabatic lapse rates throughout most of the low/mid troposphere today near the dryline. High-based storms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon from near Wichita Falls southward to west of San Angelo, where high CAPE values and sufficient flow will support supercells storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds. These storms will persist through much of the evening and spread eastward. Richer low-level moisture profiles and strengthening low-level winds during the evening will maintain the wind/hail risk while also increasing the potential for a tornado or two, although early outflow dominance may complicate storm modes. ...IA/MO/IL... a small cluster of strong-severe storms is ongoing this morning over northeast MO. The air mass ahead of this activity is relatively cloudy and only marginally unstable, leading to considerable uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe risk. A few 12z CAM solutions do show convective maintenance through much of the afternoon, so will maintain the SLGT risk into central IL for this scenario. Farther north and west, southeasterly low-level winds will continue to transport an increasingly moist airmass into parts of northern MO and southern IA. Partial afternoon heating is expected to lead to moderate CAPE and the development of isolated thunderstorms. The storms that form will track eastward through the late afternoon and evening across southern IA/northern MO and eventually into western IL. Confidence is low regarding the location and timing of development, so have opted to make few changes to the ongoing SLGT risk. However, there is relatively high conditional potential for supercell storm structures capable of large hail and isolated tornadoes for those storms that can develop. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with very large hail, hurricane force gusts, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Mid Missouri Valley on Sunday. Severe wind/hail producing storms will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains, perhaps extending into parts of the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A relatively complex convective scenario is in store for tomorrow/Sunday. An upper ridge will become established over the Mid-MS Valley and OH Valley regions while a mid-level trough will meander over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses are expected to crest the ridge through tomorrow, potentially supporting multiple rounds of storms (including possible MCSs), some of which may be capable of supporting severe hazards. Meanwhile, a surface low and trailing dryline will become established across the Central and Southern Plains. Despite relatively weak shear in the presence of capping, some storms may develop across the southern Plains, supporting a severe threat. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple intense thunderstorms are expected to develop along a warm frontal zone across eastern NE into IA by late afternoon. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 4000 J/kg SBCAPE in spots amid elongated, slightly curved low to mid-level hodographs. Initial development should be supercellular with very large hail possible and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However, overall modest shear profiles support supercell mergers into an intense MCS somewhere from far eastern NE into the southern half of IA by evening. Should this occur, a bow-echo MCS may manifest and produce several instances of severe gusts, a few of which may exceed 65 kts. ...Southern Plains... Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should rapidly develop ahead of the dryline by afternoon peak heating. Upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE wherever low-level moisture does not mix out. Some guidance suggests that the development of a well-mixed boundary layer may result in only 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Nonetheless, very high amounts of buoyancy amid steep tropospheric lapse rates should support intense thunderstorm development. With somewhat elongated hodographs, initial updrafts may be transient supercellular, with the risk of large hail. However, weak low-level shear should support outflow dominant storms with a severe wind threat. ...Mid MS Valley, TN/OH Valleys, Central Appalachians... Multiple MCSs may occur through the day, with an MCS expected to be traversing the mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley areas at the start of the period (Sunday morning). This MCS should be in the weakening stages due to the stabilizing of the boundary layer. However, the MCS will move southeast along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, where at least some deep-layer and low-level shear will be present. As such, a few damaging gusts may still occur, including over portions of the central Appalachians, where increased diurnal heating may support a brief re-invigoration of convection along the leading line. It is possible that the intense MCS moving across the Midwest during the evening may approach the Mid MS, OH and TN Valleys overnight. Should this MCS endure, isolated damaging gusts will again be a concern. ...Portions of the northern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the higher terrain of the Black Hills by afternoon peak heating in the presence of surface lee troughing. A warm, but dry boundary layer is expected to materialize by late afternoon in advance of the storms, with up to 9 C/km low-level lapse rates expected. Modest strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to elongated hodographs, fostering the potential for storm organization. As such, short line segments may produce isolated severe gusts during the late afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2023 Read more

WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0188 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more