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1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas.
The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas.
The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas.
The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas.
The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas.
The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.
Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.
Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.
Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.
Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.
Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east
through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday
morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely
continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the
trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest
of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east
through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday
morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely
continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the
trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest
of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east
through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday
morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely
continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the
trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest
of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east
through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday
morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely
continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the
trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest
of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east
through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday
morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely
continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the
trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest
of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the
northern/central California coast on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday
with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an
upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The
main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will
be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward
the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level
moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling
aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will
be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after
00z. Severe storms are not expected.
Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the
northern/central California coast on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday
with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an
upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The
main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will
be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward
the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level
moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling
aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will
be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after
00z. Severe storms are not expected.
Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the
northern/central California coast on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday
with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an
upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The
main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will
be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward
the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level
moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling
aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will
be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after
00z. Severe storms are not expected.
Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the
northern/central California coast on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday
with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an
upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The
main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will
be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward
the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level
moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling
aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will
be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after
00z. Severe storms are not expected.
Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/28/2023
Read more
1 year 9 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida
Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern
states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level
winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A
low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A
remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain
south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs
ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance
showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas.
Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a
loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys
at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should
generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into
south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over
nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over
the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day.
Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears
minimal today and tonight.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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