Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. An active pattern across the western/eastern US will keep continued cool and wet conditions ongoing, keeping fuels moist. Aside from a weak shortwave moving across the central US mid-week, ridging across the region will keep winds mostly light, with limited moisture return. Late in the period by D6 Thursday - D7 Friday, the ridge is expected to weaken, with a more favorable storm track across the central US bringing potential for precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. An active pattern across the western/eastern US will keep continued cool and wet conditions ongoing, keeping fuels moist. Aside from a weak shortwave moving across the central US mid-week, ridging across the region will keep winds mostly light, with limited moisture return. Late in the period by D6 Thursday - D7 Friday, the ridge is expected to weaken, with a more favorable storm track across the central US bringing potential for precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. An active pattern across the western/eastern US will keep continued cool and wet conditions ongoing, keeping fuels moist. Aside from a weak shortwave moving across the central US mid-week, ridging across the region will keep winds mostly light, with limited moisture return. Late in the period by D6 Thursday - D7 Friday, the ridge is expected to weaken, with a more favorable storm track across the central US bringing potential for precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 30 21:56:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 30 21:56:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more