Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 29 21:49:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 29 21:49:01 UTC 2023.