Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of CA during the day on Saturday, before advancing toward the Four Corners region by early Sunday morning. A deep upper-level trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS, as a reinforcing shortwave trough moves southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region. Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. Weak convection will be possible across parts of CA during the morning/afternoon in association with the shortwave trough. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this convection, though very weak buoyancy and relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of CA during the day on Saturday, before advancing toward the Four Corners region by early Sunday morning. A deep upper-level trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS, as a reinforcing shortwave trough moves southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region. Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. Weak convection will be possible across parts of CA during the morning/afternoon in association with the shortwave trough. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this convection, though very weak buoyancy and relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of CA during the day on Saturday, before advancing toward the Four Corners region by early Sunday morning. A deep upper-level trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS, as a reinforcing shortwave trough moves southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region. Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. Weak convection will be possible across parts of CA during the morning/afternoon in association with the shortwave trough. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this convection, though very weak buoyancy and relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of CA during the day on Saturday, before advancing toward the Four Corners region by early Sunday morning. A deep upper-level trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS, as a reinforcing shortwave trough moves southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region. Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. Weak convection will be possible across parts of CA during the morning/afternoon in association with the shortwave trough. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this convection, though very weak buoyancy and relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of CA during the day on Saturday, before advancing toward the Four Corners region by early Sunday morning. A deep upper-level trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS, as a reinforcing shortwave trough moves southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region. Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. Weak convection will be possible across parts of CA during the morning/afternoon in association with the shortwave trough. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this convection, though very weak buoyancy and relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 Read more