Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more