Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA... The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update were to expand Elevated highlights northeast into southwestern Colorado and add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Here, fuels are quickly curing and becoming receptive to wildfire spread. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH, warranting the northeastward expansion of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, high-based, relatively fast-moving thunderstorms developing off of the higher terrain in western Colorado will foster dry lightning potential during the afternoon hours. Lightning-induced fire ignitions may be further exacerbated by gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds, some of which may approach severe criteria. Please see the Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details pertaining to the severe thunderstorm threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel troughing accompanied by strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft will develop over parts of the Southwest and Great Basin -- where a warm/dry antecedent air mass is in place. As the boundary layer deepens into the enhanced flow aloft, and the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing surface low over the Four Corners region, 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overspread parts of northern AZ. These winds, coupled with widespread 10 percent minimum RH, will yield critical fire-weather conditions given increasingly dry fuels across the region. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will continue across parts of southern CA away from the immediate coast, as onshore flow persists over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast over central Great Plains beginning late afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across New England Tuesday, while farther west, a more pronounced area of cyclonic flow will continue to expand across portions of the Intermountain West and northern/central Plains area. At the surface, a weak front will linger across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states, while a stronger cold front will move east across the Upper Midwest southwestward through portions of the central High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward to the central High Plains... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across the Upper Midwest near/behind the front during the morning. This early day activity will likely weaken with moderate destabilization forecast on the periphery of any morning convective outflow ahead of the front. A slowly advancing, northeast-to-southwest cold front will be the focus for renewed thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the west of the Upper Mississippi to Mid-Missouri Valley portion of the front, multicell storm clusters evolving with time will pose risk for locally damaging winds and hail. Farther to the southwest, into the central High Plains, easterly upslope flow just to the cool side of the front beneath 20 to 35 kt 500-mb westerlies will yield shear supporting a mix of supercells and multicells. Thunderstorms will likely develop near the higher terrain of the Colorado Front Range/higher terrain of southeast Wyoming by early afternoon. This convection will gradually push east into the adjacent High Plains by mid-late afternoon with a corresponding increase in storm coverage. Concurrently, weakening convective inhibition due to strong heating near the front over NE will lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon over the Nebraska Sandhills. Forecast soundings show very steep surface-400 mb lapse rates (8+ deg C/km) ahead of the front. The latest model guidance suggests increasing storm coverage by early evening with several clusters evolving from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas and a separate adjacent area over southwest into central Nebraska. Both regimes may merge during the evening with severe gusts being the primary hazard, including the possibility of peak gusts 70-85 mph. This notion of significant severe gusts seems supported by some of the latest CAM guidance. This severe cluster/MCS will push east near the Kansas/Nebraska border during the overnight with a gradual weakening trend expected. ...Portions of the East Coast Region and Southeast into north TX... Diurnal heating/destabilization near and ahead of the weak/slow-moving front extending southwestward across the Eastern Seaboard, and westward across the southeast will result in scattered thunderstorm development. While modest deep-layer shear suggests generally disorganized convection, moderate west-southwesterlies through the lower and middle troposphere may promote a few eastward-propagating clusters of storms, where potential for strong/gusty outflow winds may be relatively maximized. Overall however, hail/wind potential should remain isolated, confined to generally disorganized storms into the evening hours. Have added low-severe probabilities westward into the southern Great Plains to account for at least isolated thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon/early evening. A more deeply mixed profile compared to farther east (Mississippi/Alabama) may foster isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail with the more intense storms. ..Smith.. 07/03/2023 Read more

MD 1392 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...western and central NC...northwestern SC...and far southwestern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022154Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase through the early evening, and a watch may be needed for parts of the area within the hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus field over parts of western NC this afternoon -- where a warm and moist air mass is in place (lower 90s temperatures and lower 70s dewpoints). Current thinking is that continued diurnal destabilization along with orographic ascent will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through the early evening. The MRX VWP sampled a west-southwesterly, unidirectional wind profile with around 30-40 kt of effective shear. This wind profile, coupled with the destabilizing air mass, should support a mix of organized multicells and transient supercells capable of wind damage and marginally severe hail. A watch may be needed within the hour for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36758117 36548054 36208000 35817996 35398008 35078026 34828077 34528191 34528280 34558322 34768364 35128386 35648367 36418327 36698305 36818267 36848223 36818168 36758117 Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-019-025-043-051-063-065-069-071-089-095-109-115-119- 121-125-127-129-131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197- 199-203-205-231-235-237-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BOYD BREATHITT CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-022240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 436 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 022045Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southeast Ohio Far southwest Virginia Western to central West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will spread east-northeast across parts of the Cumberland Plateau and Ohio Valley and may linger through much of the evening over the central and southern Appalachians. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of London KY to 20 miles north northeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW 432...WW 433...WW 434...WW 435... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-022240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-022240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-022240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 022030Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and eastern Maryland New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few lower-topped supercells over south-central/east-central Pennsylvania should consolidate into a cluster across parts of the Delaware Valley. Additional cells forming into northern Virginia may evolve into a cluster across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity with damaging wind as the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles southeast of Patuxent River MD to 25 miles east northeast of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW 432...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC021-037-059-022240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING QUAY UNION OKC025-139-022240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 434 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 022005Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest New Mexico Western and central Oklahoma Panhandle Western and central Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Loosely organized cluster should spread south-southeast from the Raton Mesa with a primary threat of sporadic severe wind gusts through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Clayton NM to 45 miles southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW 432...WW 433... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 34020. ...Grams Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-047- 049-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-085-093-095- 097-101-103-105-107-109-115-119-133-135-137-139-145-155-159-161- 169-177-179-183-022240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OHIO OWEN PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS WHITLEY Read more

WW 432 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 021805Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Indiana Northern Kentucky Western to southern Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will largely spread northeast from southern parts of Illinois/Indiana and central Kentucky through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Lafayette IN to 30 miles south of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...FFC...JAN...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-015-019-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-079- 083-089-093-095-103-107-115-117-121-125-127-133-022240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLEBURNE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC035-037-077-107-123-022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM AL AR GA MS NC TN 021715Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Eastern Arkansas Northwest Georgia Northern Mississippi Far southwest North Carolina Southern to eastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several multicell clusters should develop through the afternoon and gradually spread east. Large hail will be possible, mainly early, but damaging winds will be the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS to 20 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ARG TO 15 SSE POF TO 25 SSE FAM. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-111-022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-022240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- Read more

WW 431 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 021735Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western to central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western to northern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several multicell clusters with a few supercells are expected this afternoon. These may congeal into a broader MCS with embedded linear bowing structures, centered on central Kentucky later today. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Poplar Bluff MO to 65 miles east southeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW RDU TO 25 SSE DAN TO 30 N RDU TO 10 W AVC TO 40 N AVC. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC063-065-069-077-083-101-127-131-135-181-183-185-195-022140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE VANCE WAKE WARREN WILSON VAC025-081-595-022140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK GREENSVILLE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE EMPORIA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for an organizing cluster of storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts appears highest across the lower Ohio Valley through mid to late evening. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the categorical and probabilistic lines to account for the progression of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features and their associated influence on destabilization. Convection continues to increase along a weak frontal zone to the south and southeast of a still well-defined mid-level low migrating across east central Illinois into west central Indiana. Although models continue to indicate that the low will become increasingly sheared and weaken later this evening, a seasonably moist boundary layer across the lower Ohio Valley has become characterized by large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Modestly steep low-level lapse rates, coupled with shear/momentum associated with a belt of 40 kt 500 mb flow centered roughly across Kentucky, seems likely to support the evolution of an organizing convective system with increasing risk of producing damaging wind gusts into this evening. As activity continues eastward later this evening and overnight, a less unstable and/or stabilizing boundary layer across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus, into and across the Appalachians, is expected to weaken convection and result in diminishing severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 07/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023/ ...Deep South to the OH Valley... A shortwave trough over IL will lose amplitude as it moves east across IN/OH through tonight. To the south of this trough, a belt of 35-45 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies will persist from the Mid-South to the central Appalachians. Numerous clusters are expected to develop by late afternoon within a broad southwesterly low-level flow regime amid moderate to large buoyancy characterized by an expansive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg. Activity along the fringe of the stronger mid-level flow over the Deep South to TN Valley and with north extent in IN/OH will generally consist of multicell clusters. More organized clustering with a few supercells should emanate from the MS/OH River confluence and expand/spread across KY/TN and along the OH Valley later this afternoon. These may evolve into faster-moving line segments and embedded bowing structures with the main threat being damaging winds. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic States... A pair of MCVs, one in the vicinity of southwest VA and the other over western PA may help focus downstream scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. With weak mid-level lapse rates persisting north of the lee of the southern Appalachians per 12Z observed soundings, robust boundary-layer heating will be necessary to destabilize across the region. This appears to be underway from NJ south across most of VA into NC. With relatively stronger mid-level westerlies compared to previous days, there will be sufficient deep-layer shear for organized multicell clustering and perhaps transient supercell structures. Overall setup should support a primary threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds into early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Downstream of a subtle mid/upper trough moving southeast over the southern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms will tend to be focused over the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristos later this afternoon. Within this northwest flow regime, deep-layer shear will be weak outside of the Raton Mesa to western Panhandles vicinity. A well-mixed boundary layer will support a primary threat of dry microbursts from slow-moving high-based storms. Somewhat greater potential for a briefly organized cluster remains apparent across northeast NM into the western Panhandles during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northeast ND and northwest MN... The downstream influence of a pronounced shortwave trough shifting east across the Canadian Prairies will aid in a surface cyclone tracking from southeast SK across southern MB through this evening. Attendant surface cold front will likely increasingly overtake a leading surface trough this evening in northeast ND. While the greater severe threat will probably remain north of the international border, trailing convective development may brush far northeast ND/northwest MN with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds for a few hours centered around 03Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. However, Elevated highlights have been added over (and to the lee of) the Cascades, as well as central Arizona, as the latest guidance consensus has trended windier across these regions, necessitating fire weather highlights. Localized wildfire spread concerns may also develop over lower terrain/non-irrigated areas of central and southern California (i.e. southern parts of the San Joaquin Valley and points south) given expected dry onshore flow in these areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel west-southwesterly flow trailing a low-pressure system moving across central Canada will strengthen across parts of the Great Basin into the northwestern CONUS. Given a warm/dry antecedent air mass over these areas, locally elevated conditions will be possible where fuels are dry. This will especially be the case over parts of AZ into the southern Great basin, and in the lee of the Cascades. Currently, the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH is expected over the central Great Basin, where fuels are only modestly receptive to wildfire spread -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Additionally, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Rockies during the afternoon, where deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles are expected. While this will favor dry thunderstorms, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters may develop across the Mid Atlantic Region and portions of the northern Great Plains Monday into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the northwestern Atlantic will remain amplified through this period. However, within this regime, an occluding cyclone over the Canadian Prairies is forecast to weaken, while a more modest secondary low migrates from northeastern Manitoba into central Hudson Bay. The initially deep associated mid-level low appears likely to become increasingly sheared across the eastern Canadian Prairies through western Hudson Bay, as downstream ridging builds across northern Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. To the south of this ridge, shearing mid-level troughing in a separate branch of westerlies will continue to shift east-northeastward, across northern and middle Atlantic coastal areas. It appears that weak troughing within this southern branch will also linger as far southwest as the southern Great Plains, while mid-level ridging builds to the north, across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region. ...Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest... The frontal zone associated with the Canadian Prairies cyclone will likely provide one focus for considerable thunderstorm development Monday through Monday night. Models suggest that this front will reach northwestern Minnesota through the North and South Dakota state border and Big Horns vicinity by 12Z Monday, before southeastward motion slows or stalls. As a notable short wave impulse digs southeast of British Columbia, around the southwestern periphery of the more prominent shearing mid-level low, the front may make more substantive southward progress through southern Idaho and northern/central Wyoming by 12Z Tuesday. Forcing for ascent downstream of the digging impulse may contribute to thunderstorm initiation across and east of the mountains of northwestern Wyoming by Monday afternoon, as a more subtle preceding perturbation and downstream warm advection perhaps contribute to additional storm development across southeastern Montana into southwestern North Dakota and adjacent northwestern South Dakota. Stronger destabilization and vertical shear will become focused within/above the moist easterly post-frontal near-surface flow, from the lee of the Big Horns through northern South Dakota by peak afternoon heating. It appears that this environment will become conducive to the highest probabilities for severe convective development, which may include supercells and one or two upscale growing and organizing clusters into Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Southeast of the shearing mid-level troughing, a remnant belt of 20-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is forecast to gradually continuing shifting from the Cumberland and southern Allegheny Plateau vicinity through northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas. It appears that the southeastern periphery of this belt will overspread seasonably moist air within surface troughing to lee of the Blue Ridge, which is forecast to become characterized by large CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg) by peak afternoon heating. This will support potential for scattered strong thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk for severe wind hail into Monday evening. ..Kerr.. 07/02/2023 Read more

MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central north carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012152Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 40-50 kts will be possible with a compact bowing segment in central North Carolina. This activity may persist another 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has developed east of Greensboro this afternoon. KRAX radar velocity data showed an area of 50 kt winds within the apex of bow. Earlier this afternoon, near Burlington, a 40 kt gust was observed along with reported tree damage. Given the organization of the bow, it may persist another hour or two despite weak shear and a less favorable downstream airmass. Local winds gusts of 40-50 kts would be possible. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35587952 35647951 35837932 35957914 36047885 35677823 35277799 35007819 34867850 34957909 35177939 35587952 Read more