Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more