Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more