Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night across portions of the southern Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal mid-level flow is expected across much of the U.S. Tuesday, though an upper trough is progged to dig southward across British Columbia toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, multiple mid-level perturbations embedded within the quasi-zonal flow will cross central portions of the country. At the surface, lee troughing is generally progged across the Plains, as a result of the background upper-level westerlies across the interior West. Some northward transport of low-level moisture will support diurnally maximized destabilization, which -- combined with ascent provided by the aforementioned mid-level perturbations -- will support rounds of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains during the period. ...Portions of the Southern Plains... Northward advection of low-level moisture, combined with diurnal heating beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates accompanying the short-wave troughing aloft will support moderate destabilization. By late afternoon, 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is expected across much of Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western and central Texas. Meanwhile, with around 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb westerlies, shear will support organized/rotating storms with initial convective development, with later, upscale growth into an MCS possible, that would shift across central Oklahoma and possibly adjacent portions of Texas. Other, more isolated storms may also develop southwestward along the trough/dryline, as far southwestward as roughly the Concho Valley area, where a few storms with mid-level rotation may evolve. Given the likelihood for supercells within the moderately unstable environment, large to very large hail will be possible with the initial convection, though locally damaging wind gusts may also occur given the deep mixed layer, and resulting sub-cloud evaporative effects. Damaging wind potential may continue into the overnight hours, particularly if storms grow upscale as anticipated. Additionally, redevelopment of smaller clusters of storms should occur near convective outflows as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens, resulting in multiple rounds of storms in some areas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... Latest guidance indicates that scattered thunderstorm development will occur Tuesday afternoon, initially focused near the southeastern FL coast but drifting inland with time in tandem with sea-breeze boundary advance. Model soundings depict 1000-1500 J/kg, though with relatively weak lapse rates aloft. Shear should remain rather modest, suggesting weakly organized storms at best. Still, potential for a damaging gust or two cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon. ..Goss.. 09/18/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, a belt of enhanced low/mid-level westerly flow will persist from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. Breezy post-frontal surface winds are expected across portions of the Northwest and northern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday, though limited boundary-layer heating/mixing will temper RH reductions and the potential for the stronger flow aloft to mix to the surface. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for both areas, confidence in the development of critical conditions is currently low. ...Days 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, supporting the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. On Day 4/Wednesday, a related surface low will deepen over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its northwestern periphery. As a result, northerly surface winds will strengthen across portions of Oregon, though generally cool surface temperatures should limit RH reductions. While this may still support some increase in fire-weather concerns, the limited overlap of strong winds and low RH casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Along the southern/eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While this will lead to increasing fire-weather concerns on a localized basis, much of this area has experienced appreciable rainfall -- limiting confidence in where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible across portions of the southeast Atlantic coastal region through early tonight. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, including a decrease of the western extent of the southeastern U.S. MRGL risk area to reflect convective advance/evolution, no appreciable changes to outlook areas or forecast reasoning appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Southeast Coastal Plain... A large and deepening upper trough is present today over much of the eastern US, with its associated surface cold front moving into the southeast states. Along and ahead of the front, ample low level moisture and moderate CAPE values are present from southeast NC into parts of SC/GA and FL. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable clouds across much of this region, which will limit daytime heating to the 70s and 80s. However, greater heating will be associated with a region of more clear skies over southern GA and eventually over southeast SC. Several morning CAM solutions focus on this area for robust afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in this area show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, a lack of persistent mid-level dry air, and winds below 3km mainly less than 20kt. This suggests a risk of locally gusty winds, but only a marginal threat of severe gusts. A brief tornado or two is also possible early this evening over northeast SC and southeast NC where low-level shear will be slightly stronger. Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL risk category. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA... ...Montana... A Critical area was added over portions of central and eastern Montana, where confidence in the overlap of 15-20 percent RH and sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph has increased based on the latest guidance consensus. Given very dry fuels over this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Upon collaboration with fire-weather partners and local forecast offices, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over much of the Sierra -- where fuels remain too wet for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Northern Cascades/Columbia Basin... Locally critical conditions are possible primarily within gap-flow areas of the northern Cascades. However, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone will move across southern Alberta on Monday with a cold front extending into the northern Plains. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected across Montana and western North Dakota with winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 13 to 18 percent. Fuels in this region, are critically dry, particularly across northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota where less than an inch of precipitation has fallen in the last 30 days. Farther west, stronger mid-level flow will overspread the Columbia Basin as the next shortwave trough approaches. Some of this stronger flow may mix to the surface amid a deepening boundary layer Monday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central/northern Sierra and the Klamath mountains Monday afternoon/evening. These storms will form in an environment with PWAT around 0.5 inches. Therefore, storms are expected to be mostly dry with LCLs around 10kft. An IsoDryT delineation has been added across this area to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, several embedded midlevel perturbations accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the northwestern CONUS on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Related downslope trajectories off the northern Cascades and northern Rockies will favor dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin (on Day 3/Monday) and the northern Plains (on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday). Given dry fuels across both areas, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, resulting in the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. Along the northwestern periphery of this feature, strong north-northeasterly surface winds will overspread Washington and Oregon. However, current indications are that increasing low/mid-level moisture and related cloud coverage may limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. Along the southern and eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, an expansive area of strong surface winds and low RH are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While the dry/windy conditions will result in increasing fire-weather concerns, recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms remain possible across a portion of southeastern Texas, and will continue over parts of the central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Few changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as current and anticipated evolution of convection remains in line with prior expectations. The primary changes in this outlook will trimming the MRGL risk area and removal of hail probability in southeastern Texas, in line with current convection evolution and motion, and also a slight northwestward expansion of MRGL risk over the southeastern Minnesota vicinity, where convection continues to develop just to the west of the existing outlook area. Otherwise, prior reasoning remains valid, across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...TX... A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across central TX. These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT. However, more recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend. At least remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and track southeastward toward the coast. However, given the relatively weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal. Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk. ...Central Plains into Mid MS Valley... A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA. By mid/late afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into southern IA and southern WI. Scattered thunderstorm development will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts. Steep low-level lapse rates could also promote gusty winds. However, the overall severe threat appears rather marginal at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... The primary change with this update was to add an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over portions of northern California into south-central Oregon -- where fuels are modestly receptive. Similar to Day 1/Saturday, sufficient midlevel moisture and diurnal heating will support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon/evening hours -- aided by weak large-scale ascent preceding a mid/upper-level low off the California coast. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and 0.5-0.8 inch PW will favor a mix of dry/wet storms (mostly dry), with an attendant risk of isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...North-central Montana... A shortwave trough will move across southern Alberta on Sunday, this will overspread stronger mid-level flow across northern Montana and lead to lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient. The combination of deep mixing beneath this stronger mid-level flow, downslope flow, and a tightening surface pressure gradient, will lead to strong winds across northern Montana on Sunday. In addition, relative humidity will be very dry (9 to 16 percent). Much of this area has received less than half an inch of precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, given the weather conditions and dry fuels, there will be critical fire weather concerns across north-central Montana on Sunday. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in the Columbia Basin as moderate mid-level flow remains in a region of deep boundary-layer mixing. Therefore, some elevated fire weather concerns are possible during the afternoon on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over parts of southeast Georgia and the Carolina Coastal Plain. A mid-level trough initially extending from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast area will advance steadily toward the Appalachians through Monday morning. Elsewhere, ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country. At the surface, a weak/diffuse front will progress eastward across the Appalachians, and then become a bit better-organized -- reaching the East Coast overnight. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve over southeastern Georgia during the day, and then move northeastward along the Carolina Coast through the second half of the period. ...Southeast... Daytime heating/weak destabilization is forecast over parts of Georgia and South Carolina Sunday, in the vicinity of the developing frontal wave. This should support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, which would then spread northeastward in the vicinity of the North Carolina coast later in the period. With enhanced shear in the vicinity of the frontal wave, a few stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve with time, accompanied by risk for locally gusty winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly near or just off the Carolina coast through the second half of the period. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The greatest potential for critical fire-weather conditions will generally be confined to portions of the northern Plains (particularly northern Montana) and the Northwest during the extended forecast period. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Northern Montana... Strong westerly flow aloft accompanying a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent northern Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. On Day 3/Sunday, downslope-related warming/drying will yield 10-15 percent RH across northern Montana. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will support 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) in the lee of the northern Rockies in Montana. Given dry fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected on Day 3/Sunday. Critical conditions will also be possible across the area on Day 4/Monday, though confidence in the overlap of 20 mph sustained surface winds and 20 percent RH is lower than Day 3/Sunday -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Northwest... Similar to the northern Rockies, strong westerly flow across the northern Cascades will promote dry/breezy conditions -- primarily across the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Sunday. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-15 percent minimum RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, these conditions appear too localized to terrain features to add 70-percent Critical probabilities. Late in the extended forecast period, strong offshore winds could develop across the Northwest, though large differences amongst the global model guidance regarding the evolution of a midlevel low casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado or two are most likely across the southern High Plains into tonight. ...20z Update... The main change with the 20z update is the removal of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across portions of MN/WI. Weak heating due to persistent cloud cover, coupled with modest boundary-layer moisture and weak midlevel lapse rates are resulting in MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less. Additionally, vertical shear will remain somewhat low. Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance indicates very low storm coverage through this evening. Any stronger cells that do develop may produce small hail, but overall severe potential appears lower than previous expected. The previous outlook remains on track across the southern High Plains vicinity, and severe storms are expected into this evening and tonight. For more details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX.. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over eastern NM and west TX this morning, with weak east/northeasterly surface winds across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s are common, which combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Present indications are that scattered storms will form off the higher terrain of eastern NM after 21z as large scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of a shortwave trough now over the Four Corners region. These storms will track slowly eastward and intensify as they move into west TX this evening. Westerly mid/upper level winds will be sufficiently strong for a few supercells capable of large hail and locally gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced for portions of northwest California with this update. Efficient diurnal heating and adequate midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient (albeit marginal) instability for isolated thunderstorm development over the Klamath Mountains in northwest CA -- aided by weak large-scale ascent preceding a mid/upper-level low. A dry/deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V thermodynamic profiles) should favor limited rainfall accumulations with this activity and an associated risk of isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue into Saturday with mostly light surface winds continuing across the western CONUS. Late Saturday afternoon, some stronger mid-level flow may start to overspread the Northwest as the ridge starts to break down. This stronger flow, and a tightening pressure gradient, may result in some brief stronger winds across north-central Montana late Saturday afternoon after peak heating. Therefore, due to this later arrival of stronger winds, fire weather concerns should remain mostly minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will slide eastward and begin to weaken as several Pacific troughs move onshore late this weekend into early next week. Strong mid-level flow will overspread the Cascades and northern Rockies with dry and breezy conditions likely through the weekend. Forecast certainty decreases quickly later in the period, as more significant troughing amplifies over the Northwest next week. While uncertain, fire-weather potential may increase later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... The upper-level ridge will begin to shift eastward and de-amplify heading into the weekend as a weak upper low approaches from the west. At the same time, a broader trough will approach portions of western BC, amplifying, and moving southeastward. Gusty west winds will increase through the weekend, potentially supporting dry and breezy conditions over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps. Weak ascent and moisture advection ahead of the upper low and BC trough will also overspread parts of northern CA and southern OR as early as D3/Sat. Thunderstorm chances should slowly increase through the weekend with the greatest storm coverage likely late D4/Sun into early D5/Mon. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is possible. Some lightning strikes may develop over dry fuels late this weekend into early next week. Medium-range model guidance has shown considerable uncertainty on the progression of the upper low and BC trough late in the weekend and into early next week. With some of the less progressive solutions, thunderstorm chances may linger over the Northwest as late as D6/Tues before a cold front shifts the remaining moisture eastward. Other solutions favor a quicker eastward progression of the cold front, while building strong surface high pressure east of the Cascades by mid week. Should this occur, strong easterly flow may develop over parts of WA, OR and northern CA with dry and windy conditions likely toward the coast. Uncertainty remains high, but the potential for strong offshore pressure gradients, collocated with dry surface conditions and receptive fuels, suggest critical fire-weather conditions are possible midweek next week and beyond. ...Northern Rockies... As the upper ridge begins to slide east and diminish this weekend, stronger westerly flow will move out of the Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains D4/Sun into D5/Mon. Downslope winds of 15-20 mph are possible along with RH below 30%. While recent rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts MT late in the weekend into early next week. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 14 21:59:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Areas affected...central and into southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142051Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage may increase a bit over the next 1 to 2 hours over central Texas, accompanied by risk for hail and/or strong/gusty winds. WW is not anticipated at this time, due to what appears likely to remain isolated coverage. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show isolated convection evolving across portions of central Texas, from the Edwards Plateau to the Hill Country region. Meanwhile, a composite outflow/sea-breeze boundary is evident in the visible satellite loop, surging westward from coastal convection. Within the zone delineated by the developing storms to the west, and the boundary moving inland, an axis of moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is noted, on the southern/western side of the primary surface cold front. Given these factors, it would appear that storms will be sustained over the next few hours, with some additional development of new storms likely. With modest but sufficient shear (0-6km shear near 30 kt) indicated across the area to support organized/rotating storms (and weak supercell characteristics noted in stronger/ongoing storms), hail and gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the most intense updrafts. At this time, isolated storm coverage that is expected, would suggest that WW issuance may not be required. However, we will continue to monitor development, for signs of greater-than-anticipated coverage of stronger storms, which could warrant reconsideration of the need to consider a watch. ..Goss/Hart.. 09/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30669965 31339854 30989738 29849612 28899715 29419904 29800048 30669965 Read more