Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such, isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such, isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2024 Read more