Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such, isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 3 22:17:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 3 22:17:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more