Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast and much of the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection. At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day 7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify a 15% severe area on Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday night through early Saturday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... An upper trough initially over the central CONUS should generally move eastward across the lower MS, TN, and OH Valleys on Friday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance northeastward from coastal/southeast TX towards the central Gulf Coast states by Friday evening. At the surface, a weak low should consolidate over the northwest Gulf of Mexico through the day, and eventually develop slightly inland across parts of southeastern LA, southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle Friday night into early Saturday morning. Elevated convection should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of coastal TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should quickly shift east-northeastward across southern LA and adjacent Gulf waters through Friday evening while remaining primarily elevated over land. Eventually, sufficient low-level moisture (low 60s surface dewpoints) should be in place across parts of the central Gulf Coast ahead of the low to support surface-based convection. Even though instability is expected to remain fairly weak, 45-60 kt of effective bulk shear and strong low-level shear associated with a stout southerly low-level jet should aid in convective organization. Some potential for pre-frontal supercells may exist in a narrow corridor over land, along with cold-front-related convection as the surface low develops east-northeastward. Given the strength of the forecast shear and low-level winds, both damaging winds and tornadoes appear possible. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how far inland the low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints will advance. Therefore, have included a portion of the central Gulf Coast in low severe probabilities for now. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more