Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is forecast to remain low for Wednesday. The upper low currently moving into the Pacific Northwest will continue to push eastward into the northern Rockies through Wednesday. Ahead of an attendant cold front, breezy southwesterly winds will advect a dry air mass (currently over the western Great Basin) into UT and WY. Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance show a reasonably consistent signal for areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds with RH values generally in the upper teens to 20s. Consequently, patchy elevated fire weather conditions are probable from central UT to central WY Wednesday afternoon. Across southern CA, Sundowner winds across Santa Barbara county may be strong at the start of the forecast period and persist through much of the day. Downslope warming/drying should produce localized pockets of reduced RH into the low 20s. For both regions, however, recent analyses suggest fuels are currently not receptive, which should modulate the overall fire weather concern. Fuel trends will be monitored across southern CA where locally dry/windy conditions may persist for 12+ hours and support drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 25 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 25 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z The large scale pattern will consist of a trough across the western US with downstream ridging across the eastern US. This will bring periods of breezy conditions across the southwest as multiple waves move through the longwave trough. Sundowner winds will be possible late D2 - Tuesday into D3 - Wednesday across the Santa Ynez Mountains into the Santa Barbra foothills in southern California with poor overnight recovery. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Due to the localized nature of this threat, no probabilities were included at this time. Toward the end of the extended period, the western trough will begin to dig southward and slowly progress eastward. The enhancement of the upper-level flow will bring potential for strengthening winds across the southwest and adjacent central high plains as a surface trough begins to develop in the lee of the Rockies. Periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible but confidence is low in where windy/dry conditions will overlap receptive fuels. As such, no probabilities have been included at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across southern parts of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the FL Peninsula, and also across southern parts of Texas into southwest LA. See the previous discussion below for more information. Also see MCD 2196 for more information regarding the short-term threat near the upper TX coast. ..Dean.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Southern Texas/southwest Louisiana... Multiple areas of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in a weakening/diminishing trend through mid/late morning, exist across the region. Additional widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected to uptick in coverage and intensity later this afternoon, influenced by the southward-sagging front as well as several zones of outflow/differential heating. Multicellular storms will be common, with some potential for a few supercells particularly with westward extent across south-central/southwest Texas toward the Rio Grande, where deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be a bit stronger and where large hail potential is more apparent. This is aside from the potential for isolated severe wind gusts that will more broadly exist across the region. ...Central/southern Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. Localized strong/severe wind gusts are possible along with the possibility of marginally severe hail. This regime is the east of upper troughing over the central/northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a moist environment (PW 1.75-2.25-inches) existing across much of the Peninsula, with sea breeze boundaries focusing increasing diurnal thunderstorm development. While deep-layer winds will be weak, veering with height will contribute to 20-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting multicellular storm organization. Convection should diminish in coverage and strength after sunset as a combination of nocturnal cooling and increasingly prevalent outflow air stabilizes the boundary layer inland. ...Southeast MN/western WI/northeast IA/northwest IL... A few funnels may occur this afternoon across the region in relative proximity to the southeastward-moving upper low (-16C at 500mb), focused near the surface occluded front that will be located near the Mississippi River, and generally oriented parallel to it. There is where low-level buoyancy including 100-125 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE will be maximized with ambient vorticity. While a tornado cannot be entirely discounted, the potential for such currently appears to be very low, while funnels/briefly strong storms are otherwise plausible within the weak vertical shear environment (effective/0-6 km shear magnitudes less than 20 kt). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Tuesday. Strong low- to mid-level winds will continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies through Tuesday. However, cooler temperatures and cloud cover behind an eastward-progressing cold front will modulate RH reductions for much of the region. Dry and breezy conditions will primarily be confined to immediately ahead of the front, but recent ensemble guidance depicts fairly low probability for sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds and sub-20% RH over areas with dry fuels. Sustained elevated fire weather conditions are most probable within the higher terrain of central ID to southwest MT, but ERCs across this region are near seasonally normal values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 24 22:30:18 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies, a trough and attendant cold front will bring widespread rainfall across much of the region with cooler temperatures and increasing relative humidity D2 - Monday into D3 - Tuesday. This will temper the fire weather concerns across these regions in the coming days. Pockets of dry and breezy conditions will remain possible for D3 - Tuesday through D5 - Wednesday across the desert southwest, however fuels are largely not receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. The general pattern through the end of the week will continue to include troughing across the western US with building high pressure across the central and eastern US. Long range models disagree on the exact amplitude of the western trough, with some indications of a more progressive open wave or slow moving cut off low. Ensembles guidance from the EPS and GEFS lean towards deeper trough and potential cut off low scenario. In either scenario, increasing flow across the western US will likely bring corridors of at least Elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty on exactly where dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels and potential for wetting rainfall lead to low confidence in including any probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0695 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 695 SEVERE TSTM TX 242150Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form this afternoon into this evening from north into central Texas, and storms will subsequently move southeastward into early tonight. Supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible across north Texas along with damaging outflow gusts up to 70 mph. Damaging winds will also be possible into central Texas with storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Dallas TX to 40 miles west of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and MCD 2192 for more information. ..Dean.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large (2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear (generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of 2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas. Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing, while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related warm advection increase. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... A couple of changes were made to the Day 2 Fire Weather outlook in line with trends and coordination with local partners. The Elevated region was expanded to include more of southwestern Idaho and east-central Oregon. A Critical region was introduced across southeastern Oregon into far northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, southwestern Idaho. Recent trends indicate a slower progression of the cold front on Monday, which will delay higher humidity and precipitation into areas east of the Cascade Range. Strong winds and relative humidity reductions into the single digits to teens continues to appear likely. Information from local partners indicates fuels are receptive to spread within these regions. Fuels will be prone to further drying with more extended Critical meteorological conditions now expected on Monday. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely Monday afternoon across portions of the northwestern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Short- to medium-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward progression of the strong low over the northeast Pacific towards the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, stronger low- to mid-level winds will overspread northern CA into the western Great Basin, with most precipitation remaining confined to the windward side of the northern Sierra Nevada and Cascades. The combination of antecedent dry conditions, with some downslope warming/drying within the south/southwesterly flow regime, should support widespread RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Drier and windier solutions - most notably the 00z HRRR - hint at RH reductions into the single digits with sustained winds closer to 30 mph, although it is somewhat unclear how the HRRR's recent dry bias across the Great Basin is influencing Monday's forecast. Regardless, a strong consensus among ensemble members for elevated to critical conditions gives high confidence in the meteorological forecast. Fuels across the region are currently not overly receptive with seasonally normal ERCs; however, some drying/curing of fine fuels is likely by Monday given the warm, dry, and breezy conditions expected over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0693 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 232235Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening across southeast Kansas and ongoing storms will move east-southeastward toward southwest Missouri. The storm environment initially favors supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail near 2.5 inches in diameter, and possibly a tornado or two. Some clustering/upscale growth will lead to an increase in the potential for damaging gusts to 70 mph by late evening/early tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 50 miles south of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...WW 692... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-061-063-071-077-079-081-083-087-091- 097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-131-133-135- 143-145-147-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES KAY LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM OK 232105Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, an isolated supercell may continue to pose a large hail risk across eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, while additional and more numerous storms will likely develop by early evening across northern/central Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Bartlesville OK to 25 miles west of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-037-049-063-067-069- 073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-121-123-125-127-147-151-153- 157-161-169-171-181-187-189-195-197-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW DALLAS EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER KOSSUTH MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK SAC STORY TAMA WARREN WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 691 SEVERE TSTM IA 231835Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Iowa * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms across north-central Iowa may produce large hail and/or locally damaging winds. Additional storms are expected to across the region later this afternoon into evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Mason City IA to 25 miles south of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-103-107-121-209-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-025-033-037-041-047-053-061-083-089-095-101-107-115- 117-141-159-165-177-185-195-232340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY COOPER DAVIESS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON MORGAN PETTIS PLATTE RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 690 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 231800Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and locally damaging winds this afternoon, with a secondary round of storms expected across the region later this afternoon into evening, which will likely include additional storm development to the west of the early afternoon storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Chillicothe MO to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more