Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more