Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight over parts of southeast Texas including the Texas Coast. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning is noted this evening over southeast NM, where cold temperatures aloft exist in proximity to the upper low. The loss of diabatic heating is expected to further reduce thunderstorm chances as the trough moves into western TX, though isolated flashes cannot be ruled out with weak elevated instability present. A greater probability of thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Friday morning over southeast TX and much of the TX Coast. Here, more robust theta-e advection will develop atop the cool boundary layer, and as 850-mb winds increase to 40 kt out of the south. Despite strong shear, little to no severe threat is forecast, due to only weak elevated instability, and cool surface air over land. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight over parts of southeast Texas including the Texas Coast. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning is noted this evening over southeast NM, where cold temperatures aloft exist in proximity to the upper low. The loss of diabatic heating is expected to further reduce thunderstorm chances as the trough moves into western TX, though isolated flashes cannot be ruled out with weak elevated instability present. A greater probability of thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Friday morning over southeast TX and much of the TX Coast. Here, more robust theta-e advection will develop atop the cool boundary layer, and as 850-mb winds increase to 40 kt out of the south. Despite strong shear, little to no severe threat is forecast, due to only weak elevated instability, and cool surface air over land. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 4 22:34:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 4 22:34:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more