Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 6 07:58:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 5 23:20:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 5 23:20:01 UTC 2024.