Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more