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1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through
early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the
northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the
Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River
Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours.
...Northern Gulf Coast...
A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during
this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside
over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot
mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped
across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid
strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front
by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further
intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the
low-level kinematic fields are expected through the
afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the
approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic
environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting
0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of
the warm frontal zone.
However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a
cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL,
and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early
Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside
immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow
spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable
doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete,
surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection
regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on
supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as
they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to
coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level
theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more
strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along
the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the
effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the
anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems
possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if
convection can become rooted near the surface.
..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through
early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the
northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the
Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River
Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours.
...Northern Gulf Coast...
A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during
this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside
over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot
mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped
across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid
strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front
by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further
intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the
low-level kinematic fields are expected through the
afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the
approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic
environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting
0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of
the warm frontal zone.
However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a
cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL,
and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early
Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside
immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow
spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable
doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete,
surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection
regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on
supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as
they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to
coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level
theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more
strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along
the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the
effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the
anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems
possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if
convection can become rooted near the surface.
..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.
The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.
Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.
A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this
evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close
to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F
dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible
overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling
aloft resulting in minimal destabilization.
Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated
shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero
MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such,
isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a
very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of
the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico.
..Jewell.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this
evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close
to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F
dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible
overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling
aloft resulting in minimal destabilization.
Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated
shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero
MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such,
isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a
very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of
the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico.
..Jewell.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this
evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close
to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F
dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible
overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling
aloft resulting in minimal destabilization.
Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated
shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero
MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such,
isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a
very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of
the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico.
..Jewell.. 01/04/2024
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 3 22:17:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 7 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 3 22:17:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the
extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will
bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread
precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small
corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across
South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance
suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry.
An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and
enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday
through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may
experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be
across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less
precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry
conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for
multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to
include any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 01/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the
extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will
bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread
precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small
corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across
South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance
suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry.
An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and
enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday
through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may
experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be
across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less
precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry
conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for
multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to
include any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 01/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the
extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will
bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread
precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small
corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across
South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance
suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry.
An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and
enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday
through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may
experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be
across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less
precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry
conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for
multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to
include any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 01/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning
still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming
appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines.
..Grams.. 01/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/
...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.
...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening.
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning
still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming
appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines.
..Grams.. 01/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/
...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.
...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening.
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning
still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming
appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines.
..Grams.. 01/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/
...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.
...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening.
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning
still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming
appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines.
..Grams.. 01/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/
...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.
...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening.
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.
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Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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