Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. Latest fuel guidance reveals some recent drying from the southern High Plains into the central and northern High Plains. However, early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward through the Northern Plains that should usher in cooler temperatures by this afternoon. Similarly, surface high pressure over the southern Plains after a recent frontal passage will favor cool and fairly calm conditions this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more