Severe Storms

MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST TX INTO LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041734Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph). Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved (albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit tornado potential. Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger, well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083 29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356 31109424 31599450 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more