Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will continue to be the primary threats. ...MO/IL vicinity... Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. ...Central TX... Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should generally limit the threat with time this evening. ..Dean.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will continue to be the primary threats. ...MO/IL vicinity... Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. ...Central TX... Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should generally limit the threat with time this evening. ..Dean.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will continue to be the primary threats. ...MO/IL vicinity... Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. ...Central TX... Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should generally limit the threat with time this evening. ..Dean.. 03/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 4 23:15:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 4 23:15:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

MD 0189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Missouri to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041925Z - 042130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is expected along and just ahead of cold front from southern Wisconsin into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Thunderstorms will primarily pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk. DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is ongoing across portions of MO/IA/IL as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s amid broken cloud cover and continued northward moisture return. Recent temperature/dewpoint observations are higher than anticipated by recent guidance by as much as a few degrees, suggesting that MLCIN is likely eroding slightly faster than depicted by guidance and/or mesoanalyses. Satellite imagery bears this out with slowly deepening cumulus developing from northeast MO to western IL and a recent intensification of previously anemic convection along the IA/IL border. High-res guidance suggests additional convection is likely in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the cold front, but the aforementioned observed trends hint at the potential for earlier initiation. Regardless of precise timing, initially semi-discrete cells should undergo upscale growth owing to strengthening forcing for ascent and undercutting nature of the front, as well as mean storm motion and deep-layer shear vectors oriented northeast along the boundary. Consequently, an initial hail threat should transition to a damaging wind threat threat heading into the late afternoon hours and with eastward extent. Poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear should limit overall storm organization/intensity. A low-end tornado threat may materialize across northern IL where backed low-level flow in the vicinity of the warm front may locally enhance effective SRH. However, this may be conditional on realizing at least a semi-discrete storm mode. Additionally, the northward extent of the warm sector into southern WI is uncertain given extensive cloud cover and falling temperatures north of the surface warm front. Given these concerns, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41818741 41548752 41368794 40249048 40019105 39789180 39709265 39829310 40159337 40459329 40749300 40959236 41109211 41439171 43298995 43498966 43478876 42918777 42418756 41818741 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more