Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more