Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more